Year: 2013

YUM, Yum Brands update

Hamilton

yum aug 21 2013 byum aug 21 2013

If you check previous blogs you will see that this stock looked like a sell once it reached $74. The middle top was viewed as a peak in a wedge, incorrectly as it happens. Nine months later the stock repeats the process by going a single dollar higher but now doing it in a picture perfect wedge, always a 5th wave at least of some degree. Can we be absolutely certain that this is it? No, but how about 99%. For one thing the p/e is close to 24, double the going rate, the RSI and MACD are starting to deteriorate and we are not sure that the franchise restaurant model is going to be nearly as attractive in the future as it was in the past. Our initial target would be about $20 below the peak and ultimately $22 would not be out of the question. The company , apparently, has quite a bit of exposure to China.

SLF, Sunlife

Hamilton

slf aug 21 2013 bslf aug 21 2013 s

Sunlife has almost retraced 62% for a second time, not good if you own it from >$50. But very good if you own it from 2001 when the company demutualized at about $10. A three-bagger in 13 years is , after all, a great investment. If EW shows the way things do not look that hot going forward. There are, as always, alternative more bullish possibilities, but this count as shown above looks to be the most plausible. A big C down should start soon.

EMC, a possibility

Hamilton

emc aug 20 2013emc aug 20 2013 s

The big picture is not a pretty one, perhaps just another casualty of the tech bubble. But then everything is relative. This stock has not  even retraced a minimum of 38%. It may yet do that, almost, if our mindboggling scenario is correct. It seems that we potentially have a 3 year triangle, unfinished as it is, in the making. It has been light years ago that the stock made the low of $4.57. From that point at the very least one would expect an a-b-c rebound. The triangle concept fits nicely in that scenario as wave 4 of C.  Fortunately nothing needs to be decided now. An e-wave is still required to finish the triangle before the thrust can start. These e’s can be devious as they need not travel to “the other side”, at least not all the way. Still there are months to go before this one is ripe. Then we can re-evaluate and do so with more confidence.