Month: July 2013

TA, TransAlta, annual check

Hamilton

A year ago, June 22nd, 2012 this was the “big picture” for TA;

ta junl 22,2012

The low was expected to come in at around $14 to $12, after a 5th wave was complete. We got the low more or less right but not the count, perhaps.

ta jul 23 2013ta jul 23 2013 s

In terms of the lows the difference is not large, in time it is, almost a year. Now we would prefer the whole move to be a single 5 wave sequence. The 5th wave itself is an expanding diagonal as discussed in the context of TRQ. Incidentally, under both counts the target is about $16+, so if you are still long, enjoy it. The yield alone is above 7% per annum.

TRQ. Turquoise Hill Resources, formerly Ivanhoe

Hamilton

Sometimes we get it wrong. This is a good example but now things are looking up.

trq july 22 2013trq july 22 2013 s

Coming from $29, $8 looked like a steal. This is after all the largest copper mine in the world run by Rio Tinto in the lovely Republic (?) of Mongolia.  Why would the Chinese go to Chili and or Indonesia if they can get this stuff right on their doorstep (80 kilometers to be exact)?

The 5th wave, if that is what it is, appears to be an expanding diagonal 3-3-3-3-3 pattern. It is complete except for the last minor leg which can go to the trendline but does not have to except that it does have to make a new low, that is <$5.17. A wild guess would be $4.75  or so. It does not matter if you do not get rock bottom as the stock should rebound violently and reach $10- in fairly short notice. A double for the brave and if you already own it, put it in the buy-and-hold long-term category un till it gets to $10.

Mongolia has a 34% interest and Rio (with others) 66%. The mine will contribute about 1/3 of Mongolia’s  economy. This thing will work soon.

BTU update

Hamilton

On the 1st of this month we observed that BTU was a buy, not maybe but definitely. Here is the main argument once again in picture format (that is a chart), see previous blog.

BTU july 1 2013

First hint was the absolutely beautiful B-wave. Second hint was the vector equality of waves C and A, not a must but nevertheless a frequent occurrence. What is helping us out- we were already well on our way- is the help that we are getting from the Chinese government. Just like the Americans, they believe in a central command and control economic system. The only major difference is that they used to practice this approach for everything whereas the Americans only apply it wholeheartedly to central banking ( and a few dozen other areas!). The word is out, from now on the economy will grow at a pace no lower than 7%.  There must be something magic about the 6 to 7% range. This is roughly the same level that the Fed. is targeting for unemployment and, for those that can still remember the good old times, where interest should be, give or take, when allowed to find their proper equilibrium. Anyway, here is where we are today on rekindled demand for BTUs from China;

btu jul 22 2013 bbtu jul 22 2013 s

Basically we are up $3 on $15 in a month or 20%. The chart is very similar to that of ABX but the initial targets are a little higher. $21.84 for the immediate future and about $29 for the longer term. Keep your eye on the RSI. See also TCK.B