Month: July 2013

GWO, Great West Life update, 30 year US bond.

Hamilton

gwo july 5 2013$UST30Y july 5 2013

We were wrong on GWO and also MFC, primarily because of the time this correction has taken. We are now in the 5th year, more than twice the time it took from top to bottom. In the meantime the notion that higher interest rate are good for insurers has been universally accepted propelling these stocks higher faster than the other “financials”. But, in at least the case of GWO, the pattern is becoming clearer and clearer. This is a B-wave that is fairly close to completion. It could be complete as is but it could also continue for a few more months to do a more articulate 4 and 5. $35 would be a maximum target. Bond interest rates are rising quite dramatically but it is not yet clear that they will continue.  Sell before the C wave starts.

FTSE update

Hamilton

ftse june 4 2013

With the US closed for the day Europe and the UK chose to go it alone. Draghi and Carney are quickly becoming more catholic than the Pope by adding their own “infinite” descriptions to their respective monetary policies. In the UK this helped the FTSE propel itself upward by an unbelievable 3.08% in a single day. Perhaps it was Carney taking the tube that resonated with the financial types in the city. Or, perhaps it was the waves.  That would have been 3 of c within an a-b-c correction if our analysis ( and that of the Gainesville boys ) is correct. This wave 2 has now exceeded the level of the 4th of previous degree at 6400 and appears to be on its way to the 62% retracement level slightly below 6550. Once there (or even a little further) the FTSE should collapse in wave 3. Time will tell.

PS. Mr. Carney may be the first foreign governor of the Bank of England but it should not be forgotten that the Bank received its Royal Charter in 1694 from King William the 3d, a Dutchman. The Bank has had a lively history as this cartoon from 1797 clearly indicates.

FileThe Old Lady of Threadneedle St

PGF update

Hamilton

The usual then – Jan 29, 2013 – and now charts;

pgf jan 29 2013 spgf july 4 2013

The stock hit a low precisely as predicted, just under $4 at $3.83 exactly where the cross is. You are up about 25% now and the potential is there for a rise to $6.90 or more.  For the moment at least, it looks like a standard a-b-c correction to a 4th wave of previous degree. However we are not sure what degree at this point in time. At $6.90 the gain is about 50%.

BTU update

Hamilton

Then – Oct 24, 2012 – and now charts ;

btu oct 24 2012 bBTU july 1 2013

We are at $15 and the C wave is now vector equal to the A wave, a fairly common occurrence. In more detail we get;

btu july 1 2013 s

All the required subdivisions in the count appear to be there, so a low here is what you would expect.  Also the RSI is at its lowest point in 3 years and has been there for almost a month. We are now well below the March 2009 lows of $18. This is the time to buy!