Hamilton's E-Wave Analysis

DAX and EWG

dax may 7 2013

Here are the DAX and the iShares EWG. Both represent the Frankfurt stock exchange. Last week we had the good employment stats and not one reporter informed you that almost 200,000 jobs were created by a fictive entry based on newly created companies that supposedly came into existence. Now you are told that the DAX has joined a number of other stock indices in making a new high. Again these type of reports are a little dubious when it comes to the message that is imparted. The DAX, unlike the others, is not a price index. Instead it is a total return index. The difference is that all dividend returns are added to the value over time. On the left chart you can see that the DAX is back at the 8000+ level where it was twice before. The EWG at about 26 is still down from a high of 36 5 years ago, the difference should roughly equate to the dividends, and other payments made over that timeframe. A new high, sure, but maybe not what you thought.