Month: April 2013

BB update

Hamilton

bb apr 30 2013

We keep repeating this ad nauseam , triangles occur only in waves b or 4, nowhere else, so when you see one, or think you see one, you know where you are in a given sequence of patterns. But the market is very adapt at fooling you so the best approach is to look at the balance of the possibilities. If this is a triangle we should go down in wave e right away to around $15 to $14 ($13.50 max.). This would be a b-wave rather than a wave 4. Given its size that is a reasonable assumption at this point. A logical target would be at $20 as a very minimum going all the way to, possible, $26. A stop at $13 is warmly recommended just in case it turns out to be a b-wave within a wave 2 , shown in blue (see earlier blogs). You risk a dollar at the most if your stop is triggered and then you can try again somewhere around $10,50. If not your reward is about $5+ , or roughly 30%. The RSI is in line with this scenario and so is the MACD. Furthermore the CEO has just become a Canadian suggesting he is here to stay.

JCP update

Hamilton

jcp apr 30 2013

March 5, 2013 we suggested that this stock should be bought at about 13.75 (with a stop at 12). Had you followed up on that you would now be the proud owner and up almost 25% in less than a month. We would sell at around $18 (or even here if you are nervous), even though there is a good chance that the stock continues up to , at least, close the gap or even higher.

HON, Honeywell update

Hamilton

hon apr 28 2013

We were wrong on Honeywell (see previous blogs) thinking that it would not rise much above $60 or so, and here we are at  about $74. This time we are using the longest chart that we could find (Globe & Mail) to improve our chances of getting it right. The only thing that stands out fairly clearly in this chart is a wave 3 from 1991 to 1999, corresponding with the tech rise at that time. Everything else is educated guesswork. Even so 3 distinct possibilities present themselves. In black; the peak in 1999 is THE peak, so wave 3 is somehow not wave 3 and from that point on the stock traces out a “flat” with an unusually long B wave with a new, unorthodox, top. Wave C down should start any moment. Given that the pattern has ben in force almost 14 years already, any moment means sometime in the next three months or so.  In purple;  wave 3 is indeed wave 3 and following that there is a triangle wave 4. Given the $40+ “mouth” of this triangle a top at around $85 should be anticipated, after which the stock should drop back to the lowest point in the triangle ($20).       In blue; no triangle, just an a – b – c  flat followed by a very ugly wave 5. All that is needed is just a new high, which we already have.

The upshot is that all three are calling for a fairly dramatic drop, either now or pretty soon. Time to sell. See detail of B-wave (or 5th wave) below;

hon apr 28 s 2013