Month: March 2013

ABB, Asea Brown Boveri

Hamilton

ABB march 2013

See previous blogs. We got this one right most of the time except that we thought wave 2 was complete at the first time the stock hit $22. Of course things took longer and that appears to be just the wave a part or a wave 4 of 1. Either way it now looks complete so it is time to exit.

The only bullish count that might fit this chart is that of a very large triangle. That would also require a move down in wave e. The likelihood of such a  count being correct is on a par with war breaking out between Sweden and Switzerland.

PGF, Pengrowth update

Hamilton

pgf mar 7 2013

$5.25 should be in the cards, good for 25+% gain. But that is only the first 4th wave as, at a different degree there is another one at about $7.25. Normally you get an a-b-c correction in the worst case scenario. So far there is but one single leg so higher levels are a distinct possibility. Up to you to resolve the bird in the hand etc. problem.

LNR, Linamar

Hamilton

lnrlnr march 7 2013 s

LNR, Linamar is an excellent company in an industry (automobiles) that has a grotesque amount of over capacity plus a degree of nationalism that is only exceeded by the airlines. It just got downgraded by RBC which is not a matter of concern. What is , is the chart. Quite apart from EW, it is worth noting that much of this company’s stock climb occurred in just a few years. It has only been higher than it is today for perhaps a single year in the past 25+ years. Moreover it has been breathtakingly volatile.

The larger chart can be read to mean that a large wave 4 completed at the recent low and that we are in the process of tracing out wave 5. If, and it is a big if, that were correct wave 5 would reach double top levels in a mere $4 from here. Not a lot. Looking at the shorter term chart there appear to be a clean 5 waves up from the lows of $12.30. There is also a distinct 4th wave triangle which, by itself , calls for a drop back to about $19 or so. On balance we would exit counting how lucky we were, twice!