The usual then – Jan. 25, 2013 – and now;
NFLX is behaving as expected. Today’s action smells like a thrust from a triangle wave 4. A little over 200 is the target but all the gaps on the way down (there are two) are now closed so it is important not to outstay your welcome. On balance a sell.
Blackberry is displaying typical “triangle” behaviour, sharp ups and downs within a relative well defined space with lower highs and higher lows. Wave e is still needed but could be short and depending on where it ends the target is approximately somewhere between the two (purple) lines, $20 to $21. The way to approach this is to try to buy it at $13.50 with a stop at $12.75 and sell (after getting filled of course) at $20. You risk 75cents for a gain of &6.50, a risk/reward ratio of 1 to 8.7
The possibility exists that we are, alternatively, in an a-b-c counter-trend correction. The a would then have been from 6 to 18 and the triangle is in fact the b. The pop up would then be even larger than in the long-term bullish scenario above, which makes that trade even more exciting.
We got AGU wrong, it went roughly $20 higher than expected, but the other two , more or less right. If we HAD to own one of these, it would most definitely not be Agrium. All things being equal – they never are – we would prefer Mosaic in terms of potential. Actually we would prefer the market neutral pairs trade, short one AGU for long two MOS. Here is what that looks like;
Piper Jaffray just upped their outlook on this stock with a target of $26. Good time to sell at $20.25 for a 72% gain. RSI and MACD are worrisome at these levels. Remember. nobody has ever lost money taking profits.