Month: March 2013

SNE, Sony update and a little Nikkei

Hamilton

Sony, that other tech. wunder child, might be a better bet at $10+. It could have completed the sequence and it comes from a much higher level. The drop is more than 92%.

sne aug 2012

This is from our Aug. 24, 2012 blog , in which we recommended HPQ but also as a by the way, mentioned Sony as possible a better bet. Today the stock is up another 11% in Yen terms;

sony march 15 2013sne march 15 2013 b

6758 is Sony on the Nikkei or Tokyo exchange. The good news does not show yet on the ADRs as the day has not even started yet, but the stock should get to $17.50 easily. We would sell for a gain of $7.50 or 75% in a little over 1/2 year. The good news today was that Mr. Kuroda, the freshly appointed governor of the Bank of Japan was confirmed by the politicians. Apparently he is made of the same cloth as Bernanke but is more aggressively Keynesian, if that is even possible. The man has yet to take office. Interestingly the Japanese do not (yet) have a balance of payments problems, and are, once again the single largest holders of US treasury securities. So from that perspective they can afford to engage in the beggar-thy-neighbour policies as they have in the past half year or so.Interestingly they can do this without reproach from the Americans as, essentially they are doing the exact same thing as the Fed. is, and almost on the same scale. In terms of Central Bank independence though,just the pretence still remains. Rest assured that their popularity is diminishing rapidly from a rather low starting point in Asia but, no doubt, also in Germany and elsewhere.

As correct as we were on Sony, we were equally wrong on the Nikkei itself. We simple never expected Japan to drop the pretence of financial probity so easily and with so much gusto. Here is the Nikkei and the yen, The first is up 50% from the lows – 8000 to 12000 – and the second is down about 25% from  127 to 102. BOJ is making a bundle, soon more than 1/2 trillion $$ (at the expense of the natives)

nikkei march 15 2013.fxy march 15 2013

SLW, Silver Wheaton update.

Hamilton

slw mar 13 2013 bslw mar 13 2013 s

Again counting is not my forte’ , but this one is relatively simple. Notice that both charts are essentially identical in structure, but the scale is different. This is what is known as a “fractal” best explained by asking how long the shoreline is, depends on the measuring stick you use. Apart from that this stock confirms so to speak what we found with ABX in the previous blog. A small 5th wave thrust from what appears to be a triangle is still required to complete the pattern. In this case a stop at around $29 is advisable.

ABX update, and G, Goldcorp.

Hamilton

ABX mar 13 2013 lABX mar 13 2013 s

ABX update and fine tuning. Probable more than half of the readers of this website (about 4000 per year) are intensely interested in gold and gold stocks. The reason is simple. Economic theory has percolated to the-man-in-the-street level and now EVERYBODY knows that printing money downgrades a currency and ergo causes inflation. Unfortunately, as is so often the case, theory and reality part company as soon as the rubber hits the road. Certainly the past two years has not been fun for the “hedgers” of inflation. But here is an opportunity, perhaps only for the short-term but still an opportunity worth considering.

ABX is down by about 1/2. It is the prima donna among the big producers with the likes of G, Goldcorp. They have virtually identical charts (see below). In any event it looks like  a very real buying opportunity presents itself at about these levels 26<ABX<29 (see previous blogs). Counting , or labelling charts is an art that only the fellows in Gainsville are able to do with perfection. We just try our best. Having sliced this one in several ways ,  we are convinced that a 5th wave of something is coming to an end. That implies a rebound usually back to the 4th wave, as shown by the arrows above using different degrees for the 4th waves. That is $7 to $14 of pure potential assuming a $28 entry point.

g mar 13 2013

This one is impossible to label. There is a lot of overlap. Even so the drop is pretty well identical, from $56 to around $30 or so. Here too the last leg needs one more new low to complete itself.

BB again

Hamilton

bb mar 13 2013

Here is BB again in detail. Wave e can go outside the triangle but not below wave c, which is about $13. The mouth of this triangle measures about $6.50. Add that to, say $13.50 gets you to $20. Sometimes the thrust will extend to a ratio of about 1.6X, which could take the stock to $24, not something you can rely on.