Month: January 2013

PGF, Pengrowth update;

Hamilton

See also previous blogs from June.

pgf jan 29 2013 bpgf jan 29 2013 s

We were getting interested in this stock when it was trading around $6 and here we are at $4.50 , or so. Two counts present themselves. The one in black requires a large C wave down and the one in beige a double zig-zag. Given how close we are to the bottom no other alternatives are readily availabe. We prefer the double zig-zag, the one in beige. All trend lines come together where the cross is , about $4, which also coincides with a possible 4th wave of previous degree. The stock yields about 11% and it used to be one of the most desired income trusts. On balance a buy.

HXU and HXD, update

Hamilton

hxu jan 28 2013hxd jan 28 2013

Owning the HXD, my only personal position, has not been enjoyable the last year or two. I have been dead wrong on this one but you have to take positions in the context of the present and right now I think the HXD is once again an excellent buy. We have dropped a little below the magical $8 level that it hit after the March2009 lows but the RSI is lower than it has ever been for the past 3 years.

The exact opposite applies to the HXU which looks , as it should , exactly like the TSX itself.

IMG, IamGold update from a week ago

Hamilton

img jan 28 2013

IMG has, or is about to complete 5 waves down. If correct it should trade back up to about $12 which would constitute a 40+% gain. This may be just the first leg of an a-b-c down in a double zig-zag. That would be very negative longer term but there is a great intervening opportunity and there are other counts as well that would be even more bullish (this could be a 5th wave all the way from the Sept. 2011 high, which would then target about $16.50, close to a double). A buy but use a stop-loss one dollar below the buy! The p/e is about 8 and the yield, unusual for gold miners, about 3%.

Take a good look at the RSI. It seems to be repeating what it did back in May to June last year. That led to a rebound of $6 + and the one coming up is of a larger degree if this is the end of a full 5 waves down. See also OSK, Osisko, looks pretty much the same.

TSX, update

Hamilton

tsx jan 27 2013

The TSX seems to always want to do 1000 points and then some once it makes up its mind. We have done that this time again and for all we know it may go on just a little further. But we are reaching the 62% retracement level and are starting to see the RSI and MACD get a little overdone. In the meantime this index is where it was a year ago having served no other purpose than irritating both bulls and bears. The triangle, in light grey, did not pan out but this count is ultimately a lot more bearish as it would require a 3,4 and 5 down instead of just a C down! We will see, as usual.