CUA could be in a 4th wave, following the a – triangle b – c pattern. A thrust up to 48 cents should then occur in the next week or so. Thereafter below 23 cents and above 0.
Year: 2012
SMI, Swiss Market Index update
The Swiss Index (Zurich) has one almost inescapable problem and that is a very strong currency. Just as Zimbabwe’s stock market was the best performing a few years ago so also is the Swiss market one of the worst. Of course they are also fairly big in banking, which cannot have been all too helpful with bank secrecy being challenged almost everywhere. Whatever the causes, the EW patterns are as clear as a bell. The second top is THE top and from there we have the great recession drop good for almost 60% and now we have the a-b-c back up. So far it has retraced about 50%, it could go higher yet. This whole pattern is very symmetric and the next big move should, as usual, take the index back to the 4th wave of previous degree around 3500+. Time will tell.
HCG, Home Capital Group update
We thought the trek north was over but did allow for a deep rebound. Now that we seem to have double topped and then some , that is no longer possible. Perhaps this bank is just very good at what it does. It has 35 million shares which puts its capitalisation at just over 2 bln. The p/e is just under 10 and the dividend yield is about 1.74% on an EPS of about $6/share. The company was founded in 1977, has almost 700 employees and assets of around 8 bln. Their main business is mortgage lending, taking what the big boys cannot be bothered with without compromising underwriting standards. Of course, in Canada, the last time the housing market got under serious pressure was back in 1989 at which time HCG was barely on the radar screen. Since then it has been blue skies all the time so we simple do not know how this company would hold up under stress, should that occur. From the detailed chart below,
, without being able to assign a proper count other than the one already mentioned, we would still be inclined to step aside at these double-top levels, the RSI and MACD decidedly toppish and the proximity to the $61 Fibo level.
Apart from Canadian Western Bank , HCG is one of the few examples of an equity based financial institution that has successfully navigated the Canadian banking waters. It is the example to emulate for a whole host of financial companies that are trying to extract themselves from previous lives as co-operative or mutual entities. For the moment it is not yet clear that that is desirable considering that in the “great recession”this stock dropped by 60%..
BBD.B , Bombardier update
See previous posts on this stock from July. We recommended a buy at around these levels with a stop at $2.75. Since the actual low was at $2.97 you should still certainly has its attractions. In the mean time the order book is increasing nicely. Also, and this is not a minor consideration, this is a company that cannot go bust! This is the pride and joy of the Quebecers and there is no way that they would allow this company to fail. While you wait it may even take flight.