Year: 2012

IMG, IamGold update

Hamilton

IMG may 5 2012img dec 2012

Then (May 5) and now charts. We went a little further than the $9.60 suggested, bottoming at $9.31 after completing the symmetric a-b-c. Since then an a-b-c has taken the stock back up to levels close to the mid point of that drop. The big question now is are we going to get a second a-b-c down or is the present correction only partially complete? We simple do not have the answer so will wait for things to clear up. This could become an indicator for gold stocks in general. See also previous comments.

SLF, Sunlife update, GWO and MFC

Hamilton

See also previous blogs!

slf dec 1 2012 bslf dec 1 2011

Between $25 and $27 there is some overlap between waves 4 and 1, which normally should not happen. Otherwise the stock traded precisely as anticipated. However, the exception is the “diagonal”, in this case an expanding one where this sort of overlap is not only allowed but quite usual. The diagonal is shown in beige in the big chart. Also shown (in grey) is the entire A-B-C structure within which the C wave is expected to equal the A (roughly) as a vector. A new low ultimately is required but it does not have to go all the way to the  trend line, if more time is spent on getting there. So when you put it all together there are a good number of reasons to get out now if you did not do so at the earlier recommended level of $25.

1. The stock traded back to the 4th wave of previous degree.

2. The short term (1 year +) A-B-C is near perfect in symmetry and magnitude.

3. The big A-B-C is a very plausible expectation.

4. The RSI (and to a lesser extent the MACD) are not confirming the present stock value.

5. The supposed problem of low interest rates will not be solved soon.

6. The p/e ratio for this stock sits at 28, double the “normal” level.

7. This blog has called this stock quite accurately; maybe luck will continue.

Time to get out or carry a stop-loss just below the present level.

Great West Life and Manulife also have plausible wave counts to the downside. GWO is the healthiest of the three and MFC the sickest. GWO is also sporting an expanding diagonal or perhaps a triangle, whereas MFC appears to have a contracting diagonal (wedge).

GWO dec 2012MFC dec 2012

RGR, Sturm Ruger & Co.

Hamilton

rgr nov 2012

Sturm Ruger & Co. is right up there with companies like Smith and Wesson (SWHC), Glock , Baretta etc.etc. The are in the business of selling handguns that have very little purpose in hunting or sports. Particularly those that are built to be carried around concealed. Last month more police checks were done that ever before. Apparently the new entries to this market are often women who believe that they are useful for self protection, and there can be little doubt that these “dispute resolving” instruments make convincing arguments.

As far as RGR is concerned, it is up 10x and some, not a bad run. It may have a 5-wave sequence into one of the tops, it may have a clear B-wave into the second top, and, it is reaching a level that is close to the 61 Fibo ratio. A sell when you add it all up, even if another $5 or so cannot be completely ignored (see chart below). In any case, IMO the UZI , carried under a raincoat , gives a much better bang for the buck.

rgr nov s 2012

DJIA update again.

Hamilton

djia nov 27 2012

Now that we have (probable) completed the minor wave b within the a-b-c counter-trend correction wave 2 another likely retracement level would be where c equals a, roughly at 13250, just 40 points above the 62% retracement level calculated earlier. Time is always next to impossible to gauge with any degree of precision but a wild guess would put it at around the middle of December. that is if it gets this high. We will see.