Year: 2012

BAD, Badger Daylighting update

Hamilton

Back on July the 8th we showed this chart;

BAD 2012 l

In red what we thought would happen and , in green, the alternative possibility. Given the time that had already passed we preferred the red scenario and we were dead wrong. With the benefit of a little hindsight we should , of course, have known that all these QEs etc. would have elongated time itself and that is now water under the bridge. Nevertheless , now we can confidently predict once again that this stock is going to go down but probable not before it has once again traded above $32.  The exact EW count is somewhat confusing as there appears to be an extension of at least one of the waves in c though it is not entirely clear which one. The big picture, however, is quite clear;

Bad dec 8 2012 bbad dec 8 2012 s

We can be very precise where the top will come in. The trend line is at $32.50 but, in the event of a throw-over minor 5 will equal minor 1 after travelling $2.50 so the max. should be around 31 + 2.50 = $33.50. This time I do not have a clear alternative. The $5.85 shown in the old chart has no significance whatsoever.

XFN Capped Financial ETF update HFD

Hamilton

xfn dec 8 2012 scxfn dec 8 2012 reuters

These charts are both from the ticker XFN, however, the Sharp chart  uses the Index Fund whereas all other charting services use the Index pure and simple. It is, I believe a consequence of using a total return and a price only concept interchangeable. This causes the chart on the left to slope upwards and the Reuters chart on the right to slope downwards. The Big chart and the Globe and Mail do the same thing, that is slope downwards;

xfn dec 8 2012 g&m

Whatever, in any event from all three charts it is clear that the Capped Financials (that includes insurers!) could be right on the precipice of their own little cliff. The EW count as well as a Head and Shoulder pattern  indicate that as in the Dow Jones a turn could actually occur just about any moment now. Also these charts explain why this market has been so intensely irritating for both bulls and bears. With the exception of the first 6 months or so following the lows of March 2009, the financials as a group (without cap. weighting) have accomplished absolutely nothing for the last 3 and 1/2 years. If change is going to occur imminently , and to the downside, you may want to look at the HFD ETF;

hfd dec 8 2012 bhfd dec 8 2012 s

This is , of course, the Horizons Capped Financial Down ETF and basically the inverse of the one above even though that is hard to tell from the chart – these ETFs do not track well. The low Friday was at $5.97 and it comes from near $60. Good luck!

DJIA update

Hamilton

djia dec 8 2012

Presently the best guess for a peak in wave 2 and the timing is around 13300 – where we reach the wave 4 of previous degree and where c is about equal to a within wave 2 – and either side of next weekend , 14th or 17th of Dec. This assumes that we are in a wedge and are presently nearing the peak of wave 3 with 4 and 5 still to go. Furthermore the RSI needs about another week to get into the “overbought” level from which a turn is more likely. As always, time will tell.

WFI, Water Furnace Renewable Energy update

Hamilton

Yes, these are the guys that figured out how to burn water, but, as always, timing is everything. Here are the then  (Aug 18, 2011) and now charts;

wfi aug 8 2011wfi dec 7 2012

You need to enlarge the charts to properly see how nicely the stock followed the script. The low so far was at $12,30, very close to the indicated 61% anticipated drop. The count does not quite look as if it is complete. The third wave on the way up was extended and often corrections go right to the top of the first wave, in this case $12 . Do use a stop just in case somebody exposes the truth by finding out that their proprietary formula for burning water does not work as well as advertised. The stock pays a dividend of 6.7%.

Below is a more detailed chart that shows that there might still be a wave missing;

wfi dec 7 s 2012