Month: December 2012

ATH, Athabasca update

Hamilton

ath dec19 2012

Just 4 working days ago we recommended this stock, but wait for one more new low to play it safe. Bad advice as you would not have gotten in. A day later the stock was upgraded by at least two analysts.  I guess they read this blog and then adjust their fundamentals. Believe it or not there are whole armies of analysts that actually use EW but would never dream of confessing to that. Even august publications like the Bank Credit Analyst are closet E Wavers. If this count was right, but we might actually be in wave 4, (this recent up move being wave a of a triangle), the stock could easily go to $14.05 As it is easier to predict the past I will wait a few days to let you know which it will be.

BBVA, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria update

Hamilton

The then (June) and now charts;

BBVA jul 25 2012bbva dec 19 2012

We advised getting out after the first 5 waves up, fully recognizing that the potential was much higher (see blog under SAN). Here we are doing just that as in the detailed picture below in dollars and Euros with different counts;

BBVA dec 19 2012 sbbva dec 19 s2 2012

As a minimum one would expect an a-b-c, but a better choice might be a whole new bull market. Now that Greece’s credit was recently upgraded, the unthinkable becomes possible or even plausible. Of course Elliott wave is essentially the art of not thinking! We did think and that is the problem. However if you the reader did not, and you are still in this, $14 is even a distinct possibility. Similar projections are possible with SAN and EWG.

RY again

Hamilton

See our most recent updates for this stock;

RY dec 19 2012 

As we recently pointed out, this stock should be sold when it reaches levels around $60. Now that the stock has completed, or is about to, a five wave sequence there is all the more reason to do so. Add to that the RSI that is now above the 70 overbought level, and a MACD that is doing nothing, why wait?

So what makes stocks go to the edge, time and time again. For RY the answer is simple that your broker cannot go wrong recommending RY (or almost any other Canadian bank). The reason is that these banks are all part of an oligopoly which in practice means that if they do do something stupid all they need to do is jack up your NSF fee and cut seniors off from free banking. This can always be done with impunity as the first mover becomes the price setter , and all others duly follow suite after a wait period sufficiently long to keep up decorum and the fallacy that there is competition. The other factor is that it is always safe to recommend a bank, especially the Royal. When, as a broker you have absolutely no idea what to say to your client and yet you have to bring home the bacon, a lot of bacon, you simple recommend this bank. In uncertain times like right now, it could be argued that these banks are a “safe haven” investment. All this explains why this stock gains, in a single day, almost as much as 10-year Canada’s do in a full year. It is still a sell.

RGR update

Hamilton

The usual then (Sept 30, 3 weeks ago) and now charts:

rgr nov 2012rgr dec 19 2012

The difference is $20 on $60 or about 30%. You are now on the bottom trend line so a little bounce would not be all that surprising, but this one should continue to at least $25 if not more. See also Smith and Wesson (SWHC) that has experienced a similar drop from $11 to below $8. This by the way, is a good example of the EW contention that stock prices are not moved by events but by investors moods.