Month: November 2012
CVX update
See the blog on this stock from a few days ago. This is just added to show that there is a plausible count for the internals of this 5th wave that covers most of this chart. If correct it would be perfectly reasonable to expect this entire 5th wave to be retraced. This charts count is supported by a number of typical EW features. Wave 3 of 3 is the extended wave as is often the case. Wave 5 of 3 is clearly a wedge. Wave 2 almost retraces wave 1 completely. Wave 5 is from 55 to 118 or 73 points tall. Wave 3 runs roughly from 30 to 100 (see prev. blog), given that that is a monthly chart that does not show the extremes, the two legs are essentially the same size, with 3 slightly longer. A break now of support at about $100 would be very negative for the energy stocks.
TSX 60 capped index, update.
The usual then (May 2012) and now charts. A little more than 1/2 year has passed and essentially nothing has happened. This has an enormously negative impact on the brain, especially for those without patience , which is just about everyone I know. In this particular case things are even worse than normal as it has already taken so much time Fortunately things are beginning to look up – that is down – when you look at this good-looking Head and Shoulders pattern that is developing. The right shoulder is now a little broader than the left one (right skewed) which usually means that time is up and when things happen they will do so fast.
In EW terms there is either a 1-2, 1-2 situation, or just a simple a-b-c that has failed or might yet go a little higher. Alternatively a triangle (wave B not 4 is forming). This could still lengthen the time making the demands on our patience excruciatingly more painful. We would presently be about halfway in d with e still to follow. But things might get compressed from here on. All the issues from Europe, America, and even China have remained unresolved for such a long time that it is hard to see how the authorities could once again massage this thing upwards. Don’t change your mind now, just step aside.
Please click on the charts to enlarge. You can than read the fine print and move them around.
IMG, IAM Gold update
The then (June 3d) and now charts;
The predictive value of Elliott Wave never ceases to amaze me. The stock rebounds right into the area of the triangle as indicated after first dropping substantially in the b-wave of the a-b-c. We are now on our way to new lows, or, alternatively, this correction will become much more complex (don’t think so).