Month: October 2012

BNK, Bankers Petroleum update

Hamilton

When this stock closed at $1.46 we warmly recommended it as a buy with a first target of $3.50 (see previous 2 blogs), good for a gain of 140% in less than 3 months. We were wrong again. The stock went to $3,56. Here is the chart;

bnk oct 23 2012

$3.50 was just a first target based on absolute minimum retracement targets. It now looks like the stock may continue upwards, once a small be is complete at about $2.50, towards $5.5/5.70 or so, the level of the 4th wave of previous degree and a 50% retracement.All of this is very tentative so do use stop loss orders where and when applicable. Good luck.

PHG, Phillips Electronics

Hamilton

The following chart and text is from October 28, 2011, almost exactly a year ago;

PHG oct 2011

A year has passed and again, here is where we are;

phg oct 2012

We are right in the predicted range and are therefore sellers. 60% for a year is nothing to sneeze at, particularly not since this trade was not based on any EW insights. $27 is where the upper trend line runs and it may still get there, but we prefer getting out now.

From an EW perspective a case could be made that the latest run up from $16 to $26/27 is in fact an e wave in a large triangle, otherwise it might be a 4th wave in the leg down from $36. Nothing is terrible convincing.

AAPL update.

Hamilton

aapl oct 2012

Counting the waves is not an easy task, certainly not if you haven’t got the detailed charting required. Superficially this looks like 5 waves, from $6 to $700. If correct that would imply a drop to about $350 for starters. This would be a conservative estimate that may even apply in an ongoing bull market. The risk/rewards just do not warrant holding on any more. This week has a lot of announcements and so on so we would exit now.

PRQ Progress Energy

Hamilton

prqprq s

Unfortunately we did not look at this stock at all. Now that it seems to fast becoming instrumental in formulating our national energy policy it is in the limelight together with Nexen. The charts show a recent (last 3 months) doubling of the stock and then some, almost back to the double top level. Frequently we have expressed the opinion that one should always sell around double tops. In this case that was made even more evident by a superficial glance at the RSI and MACD and the sheer size of the run-up on the announcement. Canada’s government has traditionally favoured the monopolistic/oligopolistic business model as it allows government to keep a hold on the business. Now that free trade and globalism are slowly gaining ground in the real world it is not sure what to do with its “significant benefit” criterion and decisions are made willy nilly. If the deal is completely dead, which certainly is not yet clear at this time, the stock should move down to where it came from. The p/e , by the way, is above 40.