Then (Aug 8, 2011) and now.
So the 5th wave did show up to complete this move up, give or take a dollar. Now it is a sell.
Month: July 2012
CAE update
CAE has not done much since our last blog, but it also has done nothing to negate any possibilities at that time. The bull triangle (in green) would still require a further drop to about $8, (max $6) but, of course , it does not necessarily have to go all the way to the trend line. The bear (in black) would need an e to a max of about $13 (it can go beyond the line). Combining these two possibilities would suggest a buy at $8 followed by a sell at $11 (30+%). If a thrust does occur it would be in the order of $14 to $12 so there will be a number of different ways to play this.
CPG, Crescent Point Energy update
Then (Febr. 29 2011) and now.
So the suggestion on Febr. 29th was to sell this one right away even if it could still go a little higher. It did so 2 days later on the next Monday (it is a leap year!) and dropped to $35.62 , less than a dollar short of the indicated target and more than 20% down.
Where does it go from here? My guess is down once the (red) a-b-c is done, which could still take the stock to, perhaps, $43. But, and this is a big but, there is also potentially a much larger A-B-C (in black) which could take the stock back above $47. This scenario does not jive with the outlook on oil, but nevertheless it remains a possibility. Stay on the side.
IFF, update
Exactly a year ago we suggested that this was a sell and even though , at certain points, it was down by almost 20%, it has done essentially nothing except, perhaps, frustrate both bulls and bears. The 1-2, 1-2 count, which includes a failure for the top, is little more than a wild guess. One can easily substitute a simple a-b-c and come up with only a single 1-2. the important thing is that the stock has been range bound for more than two years now,so the odds still favour the downside. (see previous blog).