So the stock dropped 8%, or something like that , today, to a low of $27+. Many brokers that are very knowledgeable would ridicule a forecast of $15 or so before things are over. Part of that is because they move in circles that are entirely and absolutely geared to sales, pure and simple. Nothing else matters at all. On top of that most of the supposed talking head channels are geared , not exclusively but primarily, to entertainment. Furthermore, and this is truly annoying, there is tendency to present information in the most positive light, except when things truly go wrong in which case there is no limit to the indignation. To the point; when did you  last see a 30+ year chart on a stock?? Here is one for 30+ years instead of the 3 months plus you usually see on TV or in your paper.

When you look closely and apply a little common sense, it is all of a sudden not that hard to see how this stock could go to $15 if the pendulum swings through it’s equilibrium as it invariable does. If you like the H&S approach the target is lower at around $10. The true EW target is actually below $5.

Fundamentally there is enough coal on this earth to last us a millennium. There is all this talk about how much copper is needed to build all those homes that are needed to move 300 mln. Chinese to the suburbs. No one ever talks about plumbing and the effects of wireless technology, just have a peek at the inventory at Home Hardware, very little copper and a lot of PVC, so maybe, just maybe, this fundamental argument is false.

These are old charts , from April and June. Teck just reported 2d quarter profits that were down by 52% due to price falls in coal and copper. We will see what will happen to the stock but certainly our price target is becoming more realistic. The pendulum does not stop in the middle. The average price of the stock over the past 10 years or so is, eyeballing the Bigchart, about $30, where the stock is now. If the drop in profits is sustained over time $15 would actually fit like a T.