ATH, Athabasca Oil Sands Corp, update

July 7, 2012July 7, 2012 Hamilton

More than two years ago we suggested that this was a buy.for a move from just under $11 to over $15. It did just that and then some. Now , much later it again looks like a buy;

Energy, and specifically oil sands are not necessarily the best place to be at these times, but this one does show some promise. It now has a triple bottom, completed 5-waves down from $19 and is sporting a gem of a contracting diagonal triangle, read wedge. Invariable these structures are retraced completely which would imply $14. 50% is at $14.50. Not much but still 25% or so with an extremely high probability. Here is more detail;

You couldn’t really ask for more, a big one and a small one, fractals of each other within one structure. Awesome, this should really climb to $14 but it might drop a little further before it does so.

ABT, Abbott Laboratories

July 7, 2012 Hamilton

Here again there is a then ( Jan. 5 2012) and now chart, for the big picture we refer to that blog;

Hard to tell but 1/2 year has gone by. The high , so far, is at $65, the calculated high at that time was about $69. There is the possibility that the “thrust” has already subdivided in 5 separate waves. Often these things peak perpendicularly above the apex, that would allow for a few more months. Looking at the big picture again,there does not seem much risk/reward left to stick around;

Using the various possible triangles and other metrics it is not very likely that this stock will trade above the $69, only 4 dollars away. as the first target is about $42, down $23 from here it works out to 4/23, a 17% chance of winning. Use a very tight stop or simple get out.

AMGN, Amgen update

July 7, 2012 Hamilton

Then and now charts, then is Dec 13 2011, half a year ago;

At the time we pointed out that we preferred the upside resolution of this triangle, but if wrong the stock could go down equally fast. This triangle is a B-wave triangle in a wave 2 correction. The target indicated by the arrow is a little above $80. We have changed the internals of the triangle by lengthening the c wave as otherwise the e wave would drop below the c which is impossible. This also had the effect of delaying the thrust up by a week or two. Otherwise it is pretty well as predicted. The high of $75.17 is close enough, certainly now that the thrust itself appears to have the necessary 5-waves. This is how it all fits the big chart;

This is an instructive chart, as we have a triangle in the 4th wave position followed by one in the B-wave position. Notice that the patterns overall are very similar. For those that are interested in such minutia, we point out that the first triangle could just as easily be a 4th wave correction followed by a “wedge” that has a very small 5th wave. Also the A wave down can be viewed as either a 5 –wave affaire or an a-b-c. The first would suggest a zig-zag and the second a flat. We are already close to double topping so a flat looks better. The end result should be an A-B-C correction in which, and this is quite common, all three legs are approximately equal as vectors. The target is about $35/$28. A 61.8% loss of the entire value from the top is around $31, about the middle of that range. Sell if you own it.

AA Alcoa

July 7, 2012July 7, 2012 Hamilton

Alcoa did continue to drop as expected, but at a snails pace. Essentially it spent 8 months triangulating and going nowhere. At some point it should still trade below the $6 level. it still sports a p/e ratio of about 24 so from that metric’s point of view that is not unreasonable. Here, once again , is the big picture. The company is reporting next week.

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