Month: July 2012

CIX, CI Financial

Hamilton

CI Financial has about $94 bln. in assets under management which puts them right up there in terms of size. The chart is interesting to say the least;

ci 2012

EW does not always provide the answers. At least half the time it would simple be a guessing game and therefore it is important to analyze charts to find the stocks that do have a clear picture and leave the others alone. CI falls in that category but I cannot resist the temptation.

This is a huge 14 year long triangle or, at the very least, a congestion pattern. The purple line is an approximation of the base line but it has no other meaning. The triangle is drawn in such a way that it will result in a thrust down, it is bearish. If you move the a,b,c,d and e one further to the right  you would get the same thing but bullish! The bear just seems to fit better given what is going on overall. The e-leg most often does not go to the trend-line, in fact it is probable close to done. Not much to go by but at least it is a roadmap.

G, Goldcorp update

Hamilton

g 14 july 2011g jul 2012

The left is then, exactly a year ago, the right is now. The pattern last year was that of a developing contracting diagonal triangle, in English a wedge. Highly reliable and precise and they tell you the whole thing is over, at least for a while as these always occur in 5th wave position. A slight error was made then in assuming that wave 4 was complete. It was not and consequently the wedge is less pointed than first thought. The target was $56 and that is where it went, albeit in a roundabout way.

The way down was a little more difficult which is why , at one point (see prev. blog) it was good to stand aside ( you would have been out or short in any event!) just in case overlap would occur and negate the bearish outlook. No overlap occurred (waves 2 and 4 of 3 may have touched briefly). With that the bearish outlook is back in full force. We should be in 5 of 3 (assuming 4 is complete, which remains to be seen). Then we need at least another 4 and 5. Ultimately $20  (a 4th wave of prev. degree) is certainly not out of the question.