Month: July 2012

GS, Goldman Sachs update

Hamilton

gs jul 2012

See our Sept, 2011 blog. We had recommended this stock at about $92 where it was down 58%. Obviously the expectation was that it might do 62% but the blog is pretty confusing on that account. Also a suggested stop-loss at about $90 did not make any sense. Any way the stock did rise about $40 but never quite made it to $135. Today we are changing the count as follows;

gs jul 2012 l

Waves 1 and 2 of C are not entirely clear, but the rest is. This too is a “flat” even if it looks a little tortured. The main idea is a large A-B-C that makes its low almost right away, the second low of the C wave is often not that much deeper. The thinking is that we are in the 4th wave, which may (or may not) develop as a triangle. Often minor 1 and 5 are equal, as 1 ,under one interpretation, runs from $195 to $130 or less, 5 could equal that which would take it down $65 to about $40.

MDI update

Hamilton

mdi july 17 2012

MDI did stop its retracement at $13.50 or so, but the wave 2 may have been more complex than anticipated, consuming more time. Alternatively a quick 1-2 of 3 got interwoven with wave 2. In any event we are now in wave 3 and matters should unfold a little faster.

ANR, Alpha Natural Resources Inc.

Hamilton

anr 2012anr s 2012

Here is another miner, in this case coal, that is a little ahead of VALE and TCK.B. Because the “flat” points to stock prices in negative territory, if it were to unfold as per the picture, which is theoretically possible but in practice not, one must assume that the drop will stop soon. From $95 to $6 is already an impressive correction. Anyone holding this stock seeking alpha must be rather disappointed. It is better to keep stocks that are clearly a hold. There aren’t many but here is one, a grocery store,  that stands out, at least for the past 10 years since a few accounting irregularities tanked the stock;

AHOLD

This is a zig-zag, not that different from a flat except that it is a faster pattern and consequently unfolds as a 5-3-5, not a 3-3-5 sequence. The adjective Koninklijke means Royal.