After a little hesitation the stock broke well below the expected $26 retracement level, retracing $6 to $7 of the initial rebound. This still could be the anticipated b-wave of a flat, however it could also indicate that a triangle is forming. If it is going to be a triangle the stock will not move much higher than it already has (on the news of some deal with CAT). The only way to play this is to use a very tight stop. The stock could ultimately fall to about $20 if there is a triangle. Furthermore it is not at all clear at this time what degree of a triangle we would have, 4 of 3 or 4 period.