Month: June 2012

The World and Canada.

Hamilton

ewa 2012ewc 2012ewd 2012

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eww 2012ewz 2012spx 2012

djia 2012

These are the various country indices available under the iShare symbol EW.. . For the most part they are logical, EWG is for Germany and EWI is for Italy. There are exceptions as in Brazil which is EWZ. There are 17 shown here together with the S&P and the DOW. Click on them to enlarge and  the country name will be more visible.

All charts have an arbitrary 10-year time-frame. Therefore what you see pertains to that specific time-frame only. For instance, we all know that you haven’t made a dime being in the S&P for the past ten years. That is not true, because ten years ago the S&P was at such a low that you did make money. It is over twelve years that you made nothing.

A number of things are patently clear looking at these charts. For all of them 2003 (the second column) was the low, and nearly all peaked in the 5th column (Brazil being the exception). Most hit the lows in early 2009 (again Brazil is the sole exception). From the lows the vast majority go up in a clear 3-wave A-B-C counter-trend B-wave. Very clear are Switzerland , Germany and Taiwan. Not so clear Spain and Brazil. The S&P and DOW seem to have one leg too many. In the process Sweden and Switzerland “double-top”, give or take. Italy, France and Spain do not even make it to the halfway point. Mexico,  of all places, does best and even manages a knew high (maybe). If it did it is the only one, with Switzerland,to do so! Together with the S&P and the Dow, Mexico actually manages to pretty well stay up there. Little wonder that the Telefonos de Mexico fellow is now the richest man. All these indices are expressed in US dollars as that is the currency the EW.. is quoted in. 20 in one chart becomes unreadable but here are 5 of the main ones;

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Relative to the starting point 10 years ago, the USA, the United Kingdom, Spain  and Germany, despite large variances in the interim, end up more or less in the same spot, that is up 15 to 35%. Up un till the peak Spain , and Canada a close second, were the star performers. Today Canada is all alone up there at 135%. For a long time both countries poured a lot of concrete and we are still doing it! Of course Canada is so well managed that we now can teach the Europeans how to do it. The moral of the story “Pride goes before the fall”. And, diversification is not what it used to be.

P.S. In case this is not clear, B-waves are counter-trend rallies and ergo new lows should be made afterwards. Also the charts can not only be enlarged but also moved so that you can compare any set of two.

R, Ryder Systems Inc.

Hamilton

r june 2012r june 2012 s

You may want to hold off for a moment to avail yourself of this buying opportunity. The stock has a very clear wedge with all the bells and whistles that has its origin at around $30. Typically such wedges are retraced right down to their base so today’s low of about $35 is still too high.

Looking at the bigger chart, the forth wave of previous degree is at around $17, which is about right for the large A-B-C that is unfolding from the top. However , before we get there there is the $25 level where all lows over the past 30 years connect. $30 may indeed be a good buy for a trade as there the latest two down legs are about equal.

COS, Canadian Oils Sands Ltd. update

Hamilton

cos june 2012

Back in October of last year with the stock close to $17, we expected a rebound to $24 and then down again. That is exactly what we got except that it took a lot longer. That would still put us in wave 5 right now but it should make a new low, below $17 at the very least. To gain time we are assuming that wave 2 of this 5th wave is a running correction and as a result we are still is wave 3 with 4 and 5 to go which could easily get us to the target.

Oil recently got to about $78 a barrel, this is getting critically close to where the oil sands are commercially viable (about $65???). If oil were to drop below that level for an extended period of time the stranded costs could literally kill some of the operators (by the way, China is in this game for $14 bln. or so). There are already problems with getting the pipelines built, which are critical for getting the stuff to where it can be used. There is already talk about the US becoming self-sufficient ( by using gas etc.), but the biggest event is the economy. If it tanks. so will oil and the oil-sands may not be viable for another 20-30 years. Time will tell but the stage is definitely set.