FAST, Fastenal

FAST june 2012Fast june 2012 log

Fastenal does exactly what the name says it does, that is make metal bolts, screws, and all sorts of other fasteners. Not exactly a sexy business but, as it happens, it was the best performing stock since 1987 or something like that, better even than AAPL , PCLN or AZO (see below). Using EW for stocks that are on their way to the moon is always a little difficult as no chart exists. This is the same reason why shorting stocks can be a lot more dangerous than simple owning them; your risk is unlimited. Nevertheless , and despite being dead wrong on Autozone, here is a try.  Using a semi-log chart it is clear that the stock stayed in a relatively narrow channel for the past 20+ years and just recently hit the top line for a third time.

     Looking at the normal chart it is easy (even if perhaps incorrect) to come up with a plausible 5 wave count. Looking forward as they say, EW would call for a drop to the 4th wave of previous degree at about $15. A bounce off the trend-line now would be “normal” but not a certainty. If you own it we suggest you do so with a very,very, tight stop.

fast compared june 2012

Nikkei 225, update

nikkei 225 june 2012

Heard the other day that the TOPIX index in Japan had made a new absolute low since the highs of ‘89.  The Nikkei 225 is not quite there yet but it did drop about 2000 points in the last two months. So far it is following our script quite accurately and the news seems to be getting worse with each passing day. We are looking for the 5th wave of this diagonal to complete. There is no precise point as it may go all the way to the trend-line or stop well before that. 5000 to 4000 is a reasonable guess but much lower levels are possible. See previous blogs.

BNS update

bns june 5 2012bns june 5 2012 s

The 4th wave triangle shows up in a multitude of stocks. Here we have the same possibility with Bank of Nova Scotia. Again the degree is not clear, even if it materializes. It is either 4 of 1 of 3 (or C) or 4 of 3 of 1 of 3 (or C). In any event the clear a-b-c rebound virtually guarantees a new absolute low sometime in the not too distant future. For the moment this is the best road map.

WPT, Westport innovations update

wpt june 5, 2012

After a little hesitation the stock broke well below the expected $26 retracement level, retracing $6 to $7 of the initial rebound. This still could be the anticipated b-wave of a flat, however it could also indicate that a triangle is forming. If it is going to be a triangle the stock will not move much higher than it already has (on the news of some deal with CAT). The only way to play this is to use a very tight stop. The stock could ultimately fall to about $20 if there is a triangle. Furthermore it is not at all clear at this time what degree of a triangle we would have, 4 of 3 or 4 period.