Month: June 2012

PAA,Pan American Silver Corp.

Hamilton

Just two weeks ago we suggested that this stock was a buy at $15, even if the count was incorrect as in that event the downside was still limited to, perhaps $13, an insignificant difference considering the minimum expectation for a rebound to $20 under both scenarios. We are up almost 30% and would expect this stock to go further to $25 and perhaps higher. Here is the chart;

paa june 2012

On closer inspection the objection to one count was that there was no alternation but there actually is ; wave 2 is an irregular flat and 4 a normal flat. The only remaining question is whether or not the drop from $40 to $15 was the entire move, and therefore we would be in a bull market, or just waves 1,2 and 3 with 4 and 5 still to go.  If you want to play it safe, take the $5, if you are a little more entrepreneurial go for the $25 target (see also previous blogs). By the way, IMG, IAMGold is possible in the exact same position.

MS, Morgan Stanley

Hamilton

ms june 2012

See previous blogs. For reasons mentioned before we think this is a stock to own for the longer term, but that does not mean that one should not try to get it at the lowest possible price. The EW count would suggest that we are most likely about to go into a minor wave 4 and after that we should have a 5th. This would take the stock to just under $10. A similar level is obtained by using the “gap-in-the-middle” approach. Time will tell.

SI, Siemens and the DAX

Hamilton

si june 2012dax june 2012

We have steadfastly maintained that Siemens would , at the very least, trade down to $81 on the ADRs. It has. This level corresponds with the lows of the B in the larger B wave (actually more like $79). We do not expect it to stop here – after all the large B wave suggests a new low sometime in the future – but the count is presently not entirely clear and actually differs slightly from the DAX itself. Both charts are roughly equal, on both we are, very roughly , in the middle of the last 5-year range, but whereas the DAX sports a rather distinct wave 2 from last year’s Oct. lows, Siemens does not. Both are still pointing down.

G Goldcorp, update

Hamilton

g june 2012

Goldcorp has a very confusing structure. What we do know for certain is that 4th waves do not overlap with 2d waves (with one single exception). Goldcorp is up almost 305 from the lows and is about to move into the territory of the 2d waves at three different degrees, when and if it does the bull outcome would become more likely. For the moment, who knows.