Oracle is going to have a big move soon. A triangle has been forming, and even though it could be counted as starting at the $36 high, it counts better when started at the recent $25 low. A target at around $20 is an absolute minimum but immediately after that $15 and so on and so forth. Only in the event of a miracle could this be a 4th wave triangle leading to an upward thrust. Not a chance in my view. Wave e of the triangle could still go a dollar or so higher but that is not worth betting on. Exit now.
Month: June 2012
EL, Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. update
Since our comments of March 5th earlier this year.this stock went right to the max and then dropped about 20%. It will drop quite a bit more! The very first EW target is at $40, which is where wave 5 , a diagonal (wedge), started and these should be retraced entirely. Beyond that $31 is the 62% retracement of the entire value of this stock at the peak (roughly $65). These are all normal levels but they can easily be exceeded. We all know the meaning of putting lipstick on a pig. Here it is a matter of keeping the pig behind the lipstick which, as any hog farmer will tell you, is near impossible.
PGF, Pengrowth undate
tPengrowth is one of the oldest energy trust structures, as well as one of the best. Unfortunately it is difficult to get long-term charts for these companies as they changed their legal structures and most chart services then start all over as if the company had not existed before. There are two previous entries on this stock, the earliest is from Jan. 24, 2011. We recommended a sell after the $14 level for several reasons (see that blog). Had you done so you would have saved 50% more of your money. At the time the a-b-c from the May 2009 low was assumed to be a wave 4. We have reason to change that count but the ultimate target is about the same ( as then < $6). Here is the chart;
The a-b-c X a-b-c structure now makes the most sense. This is essentially a double zig-zag which occurs when the first bear market was not enough, it is then followed by a second one and sometimes even a third. More detailed charts below;
From $26 to $6 would be a 78% drop, certainly enough for a real bear. Equality between c and a occurs at around $6. Wave 5 equal to 1, if indeed it is a 5-wave sequence gets you just a little lower. As all upward moves are a-b-c countertrend moves the trend is still down so at some point we should get a new low (barring a failure). Considering that you are a single dollar away from a possible low selling now does not make sense. Buying should if you are willing to hold but waiting a little might help get a better entry.
HNU update, GAS update
Fortunately we recommended selling at $14+, see previous blog. If the a-b-c is correct, a new low should be forthcoming, after a 5-wave move. There is already one there but not yet complete. It is a buy soon and certainly under $8.
GAS, the other ETF is just a little clearer;
The counts are not clear on either, but in the case of GAS the latest drop down looks a lot more like an a-b-c, which is corrective, perhaps a wave 2. It should then not make a new low!