BTU, update

BTU may 15 2012

See our previous blog. We have a $12 target on this stock. The size of the triangle suggest that that is too far, but we could get an extended 5th wave which is normal for commodities including coal. Anyway we are already at about $25 which constitutes a loss of 2/3 and we are closing in on the $18 low in 2009.

BHP, update

bhp may 15 2012

BHP is following our script nicely, having dropped another $20 or so since our last blog when it was still around $80. It has announced major cutbacks on its capital outlays which were expected to be about $80 bln. for the next 5 years. To assuage any concerns investors might have it reassured the world that it still loves coal and copper, presumable just a little less. In any event this stock should fall to about $55, perhaps a lot further.

IMG, IAM Gold

img may 15 2012

Ten days ago we showed this stock using both an arithmetic and semi-log scale. We leaned towards the semi-log to determine the best entry point. As is invariable the case in these markets if there are two to choose from, you will pick the wrong one. The “target” for the arithmetic chart was about $9.60 (see that blog). Give or take a few cents we are at that target. The RSI is clearly oversold and the MACD turned 4 months ago. Perhaps this is it. If you take out the B-wave triangle – it certainly is not a text-book example – wave C would have a clear 5 waves down as well as the equality with A.