Month: May 2012

HNU and GAS

Hamilton

This blog was filed less than a month ago under “Natgas HNU GAS”. The recommendation was to buy HNU then at $8.42 and GAS at $8.50 Here they are today;

hnu may 18 2012gas may 18 2012

The HNU traded well through $14. and peaked at $14.22 today, so far. GAS peaked at $12.44 We are out, not because we think these ETFs cannot go higher, but because we are not sure. Take the 50% or so profit for the month and move on.

The HNU actually peaked today at 14.74 but closed lower. The trading has all the earmarks of desperation but given all the other excesses who knows what can happen.

PAA, Pan American Silver (in Can $$)

Hamilton

paa 2012 lpaa 2012 s

EW seldom provides an unambiguous answer, there are always little things that do not fit perfectly. PAA is a good example. A case can be made that the stock hit a major low yesterday. But the notoriously imprecise long-term chart still leaves a little leeway to the downside. The short term chart allows for two different counts depending on which top was the real top. If the first one is chosen (in black) this should be it. The RSI, MACD and the 62% retracement support that scenario. The fact that waves 2 and 4 do not alternate is the only fly in the ointment but it does not categorically negate the count! When all is said and done, the difference is only about$2 at the most. The first (lowest) target for a rebound is about $20 and the most probable target is $25. Given that the stock is down almost $30 these targets are not unrealistic or overly optimistic. Take your pick.

PS. Previous blogs sketch the path this stock would take quite some time ago and, if I may say so on behalf of EW, with uncanny precision. Just plug/search the index for PAA.

TSX update.

Hamilton

tsx may 17 2012

Just a quick reminder of where we are in the big picture. Things happen on an incremental basis and what feels like perfectly normal may actually be totally absurd if you care to step back for a moment. It is true that at roughly 11000 the TSX has not moved for about 12 years. But it is also true that in the past 25 years the TSX has only been higher than it is today for less than perhaps 2 1/2 years, this while the world supposedly collapsed financially! It would appear to me that the realists that think that the index might drop to say 8000 should not have to prove their point  and that the burden of proof  should be put on the armies of pushers-of-stock that are, forever,  looking for higher levels.

SI, Siemens

Hamilton

Siemens was predicted to go to about $81. It is getting there but it has taken a long time. The outlook remains quite bearish (see previous blogs), but rather than regurgitate the EW analysis it occurred to me that it might be refreshing to use the Head & Shoulder pattern, something I know very little about. Here is the chart;

si may 2012

The left shoulder and the right shoulder sort of fit into a band that should run close to horizontally. Then, after the break-out under the lower channel line, the stock should fall by an amount similar to the distance that the head exceeds the upper trend line. It is as simple as that. Target $60. The EW target, by the way, is half of that.