Month: May 2012

ASX, Australia update

Hamilton

Nothing in North America seems to work all that well, the Australian index however is performing pretty much as expected. (see previous blog):

asx may 2012

This index has been remarkable consistent. In approximate terms it loses 50%, then regains 50%, loses 50% and regains 50%. It is presently right at a large trend-line and the next move is down 50% except that we are now about to enter wave 3 down and that should normally be the most forceful and longest . As a minimum one would expect it to at least equal wave 1, roughly 1000 points, 1600 is far more common and then there is still a 5th wave to go.

What is remarkable about this index is that is highly dependent on China, generally considered to be the growth engine of the World today. Secondly it is also an exporter of raw materials first and foremost. As a consequence one would think that this index should have some prognostic value with respect to Canada’s TSX. Here it is;

tsx may 2012

Notice that “essentially” the charts are very similar except that the Canadian index has relatively larger retracements and as a consequence has stayed closer to peak values. In all other respects they do seem to be listening to the same drummer and what is not yet evident in Canada is already painfully so in Australia. The question for us, living next to the US (bad economy)and them living next to China (good economy) should be, why are we doing better? or are we and is this just a unsustainable fluke. Could it be that we have better leaders, a more entrepreneurial people, a more competitive industry? Don’t think so.

NGQ, NGex Resources.

Hamilton

NGQ may 2012

Never even heard of this company. It is part of the Lundin family trust business and operates independently as an exploration company, somewhere in Chili.

The chart simple looks very promising. Two triangles in a row which should normally take the stock back to $3.10 and perhaps a lot more. The first triangle is most likely a B-wave and the second a 4th wave. This could mean that what is in the chart is a 4th wave A-B-C correction and should by implication lead to a new high some day above $4

AMZN update

Hamilton

amzn 24 oct 2011amzn may 2012

On the left the prognosis as of Oct 24 2011, on the right what actually transpired. The  structure here is that of a diagonal triangle (which is not a triangle) or in plain English , a wedge. They have overlap and are highly predictive. In this case the “normal” prediction would be for a drop to about $160 seeing that that is the “base”of the wedge. In these markets things seldom work out precisely as the stock only dropped to $167 but that is still almost $80 from the top of $245.

Since the low the stock has gone back up and is about to double top. It is quite amazing how investors, whoever that may be, do not seem to have a care in the world having so recently burnt their fingers and yet willing to do the same thing all over again. A sell.

SLF update

Hamilton

slf may 2011

Sunlife (see previous blogs) fooled us a little with its extra long 5th wave taking it an additional $2 lower to about $18. In any case you should be long this stock from about $20,50. Soon it will be time to exit. The ideal target is $26 to $27. The rise from December could be either a 5 wave move or a corrective a-b-c. In the former case we could go a lot higher but not immediately. In the latter case, which is more probable, we will make new lows. In both cases it looks as if we are in some minor degree triangle which would then require at least one more push up. Note that both the RSI and MACD already have rolled over. Take the almost $5 profit and move on.