TSX update

tsx april 18 2012

The anticipated triangle is still possible but not very plausible. Even so the direction may still be the correct one. A lot of noise in the markets very little is clear. India lowered it’s rates, Canada may raise them earlier than expected. GS earnings were good, then again they are a lot lower than they used to be. Mr Carney is going to Threadneedle Street and Spain borrowed another 1/2 trillion from the ECB but yesterday’s 4 bln. new issue went well. Obama is going so stop the bad oil speculators and natural gas keeps making new lows, but is hardly used for transportation this side of the pond.

History repeats, and some very good advice, perhaps !

In 1895 Gustave le Bon published a book “Psychologie des foules” (The Crowd, a study of the popular mind) in which he, rather convincingly, argues that groupthink as we call it today is essentially a contradiction in terms as groups, crowds, assembles etc.etc. do not think and instead descend to the lowest possible denominator of emotional impulsive action. Both Hitler and Mussolini apparently kept a copy at their bedside in order to read up on how to manipulate the crowds to their advantage. Interestingly both “prestige” and “contagion”, some of the factors identified by le Bon, are clearly dominant in the brokerage business, particularly in operations that used to be referred to as “boiler-rooms”. They , of course, displace rational thinking. The book is a good read as a whole, but for the moment what interests me is a footnote on page 121 that reads as follows;

Gustave le Bon

This is from the Economist and it is about how expenditures, in this case on railways, are voted on. More interestingly le Bon goes on to mention specifically Portugal, Greece, Spain and Turkey as bankrupt countries that used the 4/5 reduction in the payment of interest on bonds as a means to again balance their budgets. Today, 152 years later, nothing has changed except that Turkey, then the Ottoman Empire, is not yet on the list.

For those that prefer English, below is a rough translation.The book is available on the internet;

Gustave le Bon Eng

TSX update

tsx apr 12 2012

Today was one of those day’s when most news was bad, which obviously is good, more QE’s etc.etc. As far as the TSX is concerned we are still in no man’s land. As long as we stay below 12250 this could still be a 4th wave, most likely a triangle. All that is needed now is some good news. Again this could turn out to be just 4 of 3.

TSX update

tsx apr 10 2012

The possibility of a simple a-b-c correction is becoming less and less probable. We have done about 700 points down so far, about 1/2 of the recent rebound. For the TSX 1000 points is rather common. Should this happen again we could have a day or two of sideways movement and then a 5th wave to complete wave 1 of 3 of C. Time will tell.