Month: April 2012

AAPL

Hamilton

AAPL apr 2012

AAPL dropped almost $100 over the past two months and did so in a near perfect a-b-c. In itself this has no predictive value as the stock could either shoot straight up down depending on the reported earnings. Again they were pretty stellar and the stock had already reached $601 in after hours trading. The question now is whether or not this a-b-c is all of the correction, or just part of a more complex correction that still has some ways to go. In any event chances of a new high in the future have improved considerable. How much higher remains to be seen.

aapl apr 2012 b

Given the performance, 6 fold in two years and virtually vertical the past 6 months, still must make a prudent investor wonder if it is smart sticking around much longer.

SU Suncor

Hamilton

su apr 2012 ends

Suncor (see previous highly precise blogs), of course fits the above pattern to a T, the only difference being that it is not yet as far as 5N Plus. If the C ends up being more or less vector equal, it should make a new low below $18 and could do so on a point on this circle. It would certainly come as a surprise to many that seem to be wedded to the idea that gold and oil have nowhere to go but up. Time will tell!.

You can enlarge both charts and move one up so they end up being side by side. The similarity will become more compelling , especially if they are properly aligned with regard to time!

5N Plus Inc.

Hamilton

The name is derived from the degree of purity of the metals that it makes, as in 99.999%. It used to produce almost exclusively for First Solar (FSLR), a company that has recently announced lay-offs etc.etc. (see elsewhere in this blog). In the meantime a whole different business was bought so now solar panels represent only a small portion of the company’s business but in the process the company got burdened by a lot of debt. Back in 2008 this was a darling for speculators who were perhaps carried away by the purity of the enterprise. Here are the charts;

5N Plus Inc.VNP s apr 2012

The Bigchart is on a semi-log scale, and the shorter-term one on a normal arithmetic scale. Looking at the Bigchart it could be argued that an entire correction from the $14 high was completed today at about $2.85 with C being vector equal to A, and a loss of more than 79.6%. The smaller chart displays a very nice wedge formation that has hit the lower boundary precisely. Furthermore the stock appears to have fallen out of a minor degree triangle which suggests that a bounce to $5 might be in the cards, even if this is not yet THE bottom! As always, no guarantees.

By the way, this is an excellent “model” for what could be expected for most stocks once the bear is complete. A little red arrow indicates approximately where we are right now in that process.