Month: April 2012

G, Goldcorp update.

Hamilton

During that same July, (14th to be exact) we posted this chart for G;

g 14 july 2011

For a larger chart we refer to the blog itself. For the moment suffice it to say that given the “wedge” structure depicted in this chart the first target should be the level of the base, in this case $35. Today we have this;

g apr 2012

We are at $38 , coming of a high of pretty well exactly $56 ,so we could be approaching an intermediate bottom of sorts soon. However if the big picture (see that blog) is anywhere near correct there could still be a long way to go ($19?). To simplify matters it is replicated below;

G july 2011 b

NEM , Newmont Mining update

Hamilton

On July 26,2011 we put out the following chart of Newmont;

NEM jul 2011

You can find this chart in a earlier blog on NEM (under Stock index). Below is the same chart as of yesterday;

NEM apr 2012

The high was around $73 and we are at $45 down about $28 or almost 40%. The p/e is at 47x according to Bigcharts. The stock is at levels that it first reached 8 years ago. At this time we have no reason to change the outlook.

TSX update

Hamilton

tsx apr 25 2012

As almost always after a wave 5 from a triangle the index should return to approximately the highest point of that triangle. That would allow another 60 points or so to the upside (and of course upsides have lately much further than one would normally expect), and then the downside should resume.

PS the 5th wave is assumed to have “failed”, that is it did not go far enough. This is a little problematic.

SBUX

Hamilton

Starbucks has a dividend yield of 0.68% and trades at a P/E of 36. Today it hit a high of $62 which caught our attention. It reported earnings that appear to be a tad disappointing at least as far as European sales were concerned and the stock is down a few dollars in after hours trading. Here is the chart with a count that is somewhat questionable considering a slight overlap, but we present it anyway;

SBUX 2012

Back in April of 2009, after the stock had hit a low around $5/$8 and had already climbed to a bout $11 or so we recommended the stock as a buy but added that we had no idea why anybody would do so. Now that the stock is some $50 higher, not only do we not understand why one would buy it but we would definitely recommend selling it. The problem, of course, is that with interest rates at almost zero ANY asset that has a return has a theoretical infinite value. This is the free (you do not need to work for it) prosperity model followed by Bernanke et al. Even so the Fibo # of 61.8 may just have more weight this time around.