On closer inspection, I got the number wrong. It should be 12876 (2 May, 2011) and the high today is 12869.95 so there are still 6 ticks to spare. Should the scenario be negated, then it is worth keeping in mind that this is occurring on the Dow only (at least among major indexes) so the scenario would still be intact. Also the Dow might be the most watched but it is also the most easily manipulated (see previous blog on CAT), simple because just 3 or 4 stocks have a disproportionate effect on the Dow.