Whereas some stocks have done very little over the past 10+ years, that is certainly not the case with Crescent Point which has gone from under $2 to above $46. We would sell it now. Veritas has a $50 target on it but we doubt that it will go much above $48 given the above “wedge”. The extra dollar or two is not worth waiting for considering the downside risk this sort of pattern usually entails.
Comments from July and October last year, see previous blogs.
The stock did exactly that. The low was at $33.54. My (educated) guess is that the first wave is complete and that we are doing 2 right now. This wave 2 could, repeat could, continue to say $44, the apex of a triangle. I am sure some of you will think that this count cannot be correct as wave 3 looks to be the shortest. However if you look carefully it will become clear that it is indeed the longest. Stay out! By the way, the p/e is still well above 30 according to Bigcharts.
The target of “say” $44, made 4 months earlier was , of course, wrong by $0.26. That really makes you wonder if EW works. Next is wave 3 down to below $25.
See previous blogs! We were wrong about wave 2 not going above $52, it did but at least we got the first target just about dead on at $40 or so. The move down is not entirely clear, it could be 5 waves but there is some overlap which should not be there. However the a-b-c back up, even if surprisingly strong is pretty clear. Today we are doing the 3rd of 3 (or alternatively a second a-b-c down). The crime today seems to be accounting irregularities, cozy relations with a former political friend and a lot of “baksheesh” that is pretty rampant as soon as you get below the Rhine, but that can be found here too as, for instance, at that Canadian ex-crown corporations like Orange.
These guys are building jails in Lybia, something that is presently in high demand with our present government that would like to see us follow the US example by having the largest percentage of the population behind bars. That is not going to stop this stock from reaching our ultimate target of below $26.
Richie Brothers, the auctioneers (RBA) have a similar chart except that wave 2 peaks at a more modest 60% or so retracement level (see previous blogs).
As we pointed out , the b wave here was a little bit at the low end of the scale but otherwise this was a screaming buy and certainly violent, almost a double in a month. This one should go higher to about $90+ but we would prefer to play it safe and exit at about $78 or so.