Month: October 2011

CP update, then & now

Hamilton

Then was the 27th of January of 2011, so about seven months ago. Here is that chart;

 cp20112

At the time, see the blog, we made it clear that this might well be it. The count was clearly that of a large B-wave that had completed every minute detail. As always, the initial target was the level of the b-wave within the larger B-wave, roughly $45/$46. Here is today’s chart;

cp oct 2011

As it happens EW nailed the high almost to the day at around $69. It also had the correct initial target to the dollar. This was a drop of no less than 42%, there were no analyst that I am aware of that were even remotely aware of this possibility. Anyway, now we are back up almost to $60, a 50% increase from the lows and a retracement of about 70 % of the drop this year. Also the stock is very close to the 4th wave of previous degree. If you did not sell the first time, you should do so now.

AMZN

Hamilton

amzn oct 2011

Absolutely no idea how to count this. but we are hugging the upper trend-line, not good!

amzn oct 2011 s

Whatever this is, it looks like it is yellow, quacks, and floats. That does not mean it is a duck but it does mean that you would be foolish to ignore the possibility. It is , of course a diagonal given all the overlaps so you should say, “thank you” and take your leave ASAP, they are reporting tomorrow.

MMM

Hamilton

MMM june 2011

Above is 3M in june or so this year, the big picture. Here it is today:

mmm oct 2011

Notice that wave one and two were not that bad. 2 is , of course an a-b-c correction and should retrace to , about , wave 4 of previous degree, a little above $ 83. It could go higher to 50 or 60 %, close to the 50 day moving average of $87. After that it is downhill.

MCD, McDonalds Corp.

Hamilton

mcd oct 2011 l mcd oct 2011 s

Mc Donalds has behaved almost like a bluechip. It did not drop as we thought it might, but then it did not progress much at all for the past4 months or so. Long –term this stock is trading above it’s 3 year old channel and is doing a “throw-over”. These come at the end!

From the short-term chart a good case could be made that the stock formed a triangle. This would be wave 4 of 5. The “measurement for this triangle suggests a top at around $94 at best. So now you have $2 or so to the upside and $42 to the downside. The big triangle wave 4 has it’s base at the $50 level and this is almost certainly where the stock will go once it starts it’s trek down. That is, by the way, also true in a continuing bull market.

If odds of 2 to 42 are appealing, then stay with the stock, all others should exit. This , I think, applies regardless of the EW count. It is a simple matter of being prudent or smart and applying the buy low/sell high principal.