This was a sell before, the all time high in 2006 being about $40. It has been sitting here for about 4 months adding only a dollar or two at the most. Waves C and A are now equal. Perhaps another dollar is needed to get to the upper trend line but that should be it.
On the left then, on the right now;
ACWI are iShares, the high was $49, it peaked at $49.83
The Stox50 high was 2698 on March 4, it peaked at 2741 a few days earlier.
The high was 14280 on March 4, the actual high was 14315. The blog is available under ACWI. Does it matter? Not really, everyone knows that EW is nonsense anyway. Better to listen to your broker. Unfortunately Stockcharts is not free if you want to go back more than 3 years, consequently I cannot line-up the charts the way i would like to.
With the benefit of hindsight it would now seem that the first 5 waves down was completed in early October (4th?). From there we already have an idiotically large retracement of about 70% in 1/5 of the time it took to go down. This wave 2 can retrace almost all of wave 1 down but this is already big, certainly considering that virtually nothing was resolved. There was no “catharsis” to be found anywhere, either in the US or Europe, so perhaps it was the usual culprits in the plunge-protection-team that stepped in right at the edge and then kept pushing to force out the shorts. No other indexes are this close to their tops. Wave 5 down would have to start before the thin red line is crossed due to overlap. But in the favored interpretation wave 3 could start at any moment! Perhaps it even started today!
Back in January we noted that SNC Lavalin had retraced to a very nice Fibo number of 61.62 after tracing out an equally nice B-wave. The conclusion, as always an initial drop to about $41 and more after that. Here we are today;
The actual top clicked in at just a few pennies higher and the stock dutifully drops to about $39. The way it does that could be 5-waves, or just waves 1-2-3-4 with 5 still to come. The rebound as either wave 4 or 2 is a clean a-b-c zig-zag that cannot go higher than $52 if a wave 4. We shall see but either way the next big move is down.