Month: October 2011

RY, do not second guess yourself

Hamilton

ry sept 23 2011

On the 23 of Sept this was the preferred count for RY. I even called it a buy (for a $5 trade). I never got in and changed the outlook twice after that, once correctly and once not so. The moral is that one should be patient and not second guess oneself all the time. We are our own worst enemies. Here is what happened so far.

RY oct 27 2011

As the 5th wave was extended a normal retracement is to the top of wave 1 of 5, $52, this is also wave 4  under an alternative count and close to a 50% retracement. Soon it will be a sell again.What is not clear, and consequently confusing, is if there was a wedge at the bottom, or a failed 5th. As I was looking to get out at $50 I missed $5 or 11% in a month.

Execution is everything!

SU , Suncor, update

Hamilton

su occt 26 2011

We were a little early in recommending this stock (also PBN, Petrobakken). by saying that it was a buy under $30. As it went all the way to $24 that was not all that precise, but the position is nevertheless in-the-money by almost $3. $36 is near the 50% level and also where c=a in what appears to be a corrective rebound ( the wave count is questionable on the downside) . It has a few more dollars to go but we would be satisfied with a 10% gain!

DOW Chemical

Hamilton

This is the world’s second largest chemical company after Germany’s BASF, here are the charts;

DOW Chem dow chem 2

You can click on the charts to enlarge. The large B-wave on the left is particularly clear; it calls for new lows sometime in the future, that is below the roughly $7 back in March 2009. There are alternatives but none that are very plausible at this point.

On the short-term chart on the right, the 5 wave initial drop is equally clear on this stock. The drop is from roughly $44 to $20, almost cut in half. As always, a 50% or even larger rebound is normal. That could take this stock to $32, where, by coincidence , we would have a completed a-b-c wave 2 with c=a. It does not have to go that far and it can go a little further, but the structure is perfectly clear. Wave 3 etc will start at some point in the very near future and it will be fast and furious compared to what we have so far.