TIF, Tiffany & Co.

tif tif2

Unequal income distribution, according to some, is one of the main causes of economic depressions, and certainly a major cause of social upheaval based on resentment. In the US income or wealth distribution is now substantially more unequal than it was around the time of the great depression. The stats are staggering with the top 1% commanding 40% of all wealth or numbers like that. For companies like Tiffany  the less equal the better. Like stocks, the higher the price the more they sell,(known as Veblen goods) to a point. That point seems to have been reached with the stock at $85 or so and right on the 30-year trend-line.

In EW terms the case can be made equally for an oversized B-wave or a 5th, both are shown. Fortunately for the immediate future it does not matter all that much , as in both cases the stock should retreat to the level of wave 4 of previous degree, roughly at $15 . Unfortunately even a young lady like Audrey Hepburn, of good Dutch stock by the way, cannot save the company from that drop. A sell in my opinion.

HL, Hecla Mining Company, SLV iShares Silver, FVI Fortuna

hl aug 2011

Hecla is the oldest US precious metals miner and also the largest and lowest cost silver producer. According to it’s website its cost for silver is a negative $1.45, which simple means that “side-show”, consisting of other metals pays for the entire operation and then some.

From an EW perspective the rise from below$1 to $13 is probable one single large “wedge”. In 2008 this wedge collapses towards the base but does not quite make it. This collapse, by the way, is a pretty good indicator of how well the precious metals actually “hedge” or protect you against financial turmoil. Then from the lows in late 2008 the stock rallies in what almost certainly is a B-wave counter-trend correction. In plain English that means that we have to go down again and establish a new low , $1.  Alternatively a more complex correction may be unfolding, but even then a return to about $ 4 is almost a given. The stock is already down by more than 40% and there has not been a shortage of turmoil lately. Looking at the SLV, it certainly does support the notion that silver may , in fact, have topped already.

slv aug 19 2011

Fortuna sheds some light on the situation but it is not conclusive one way or another. The stock appears to be making a triangle but that does not really fit, so I suspect that it is a 1-2 on the way down. A drop now through the lower trend-line should resolve the matter. That this is possible , regardless of what silver does, becomes far more plausible if one realizes that this company has some major environmental issues to overcome.

fvi aug 2011

SLB , Schlumberger Ltd., HAL Halliburton

SLB

This company is in the oil equipment services business. They are dependent on the big oil companies in that they serve at their pleasure. In that sense the are a derivative of the the oil companies and should , therefore, trade in a wider range. The B-wave is clear as a bell but so far at least the stock has not moved that much. It should head for $55 for starters (RIG , Transocean, is already at the bottom but it has a few other issues). In any case , if this stock is a guide the oil sector still has a lot of trouble ahead. By the way, this one trades at a P/E of 21,; it won’t need a lot of compression to get to the first target.

Halliburton is in the same category, except that it benefits from vice-presidential interference. The chart and it’s message are the same.

HAL

HPQ Hewlett Packard, update

hpq aug 19 2011

Yesterday HP traded in a wild $7 range. The take-over of a British software company was leaked a little early so the earnings were released a little early as well and the stock was halted for a little while. All things that just happen at critical points. Using as fine a pencil as I can , I have updated the chart from a few days ago. It shows that $27 is pretty well the sweet spot. The stock should not trade below $26 as that would negate the count ( overlap).

Nobody seems to understand what the company is up to. Some optimist are reminded of IBM some 10+ years ago when they got out of PC’s. Others believe the company lacks vision and is simple meandering to its ultimate demise. But, it is still the largest computer company and it trades at a P/E now below 7 (which makes you wonder why they are buying a company at a P/E of 30). Anyway this one is a buy at $27 with a stop at $26

P.S I see that the stock is down >$5 in after hours so this suggestion is not operative any more. In a manner of speaking you are stopped out before the fact. We will look at it again in a few days.