Month: August 2011

CF, Canaccord Financial Inc.

Hamilton

cf l cf s

CF is one of a handful of independent investment-dealers, merchant bank type of outfit still remaining. Sprott Inc, that went public about 4 years ago is another one and, despite their high exposure to gold and other such end-of-the-world products are still trading 20% under their issue price. CF has a nicer cleaner chart, it is the one we have seen a thousand times now; a big down-leg, followed by an A-B-C B-wave as a retracement. Next is the next down-leg, already well advanced. A further drop to about $8 is the first target. Ultimately look for a price below $3.

DAX , update.

Hamilton

DAX aug 25 2011

Today the DAX dropped 4+% in a matter of 18 minutes, I assume they were not impressed by Mr. Buffett’s impulsive interest in Bank of America. Others have it that rumors , quickly countered by new confirmations, of credit downgrades across Europe were gaining currency . An even less plausible argument was that since short-selling was banned all over Europe except for Frankfurt, they became the lightning rod for such nefarious activities.  Whatever the case, it fits nicely with the count I had in mind for the DAX as shown in the above chart. There are a good number of variations to this theme but this is roughly what I would expect.  The (intermediate!) low should be around 5100 to 5000. The risk is that things go faster and lower.

Nikkei 225, update.

Hamilton

Speaking of expanding diagonal triangles, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is, I believe , a great example. Here is is once again using a semi-log scale chart;

Nikkei 225 aug 2011

You do not have to go all the way to the lower trend-line. More often than not it does not even get close. But you should get a 3-wave move in this 5th leg down (as well as the others). A low below 6994 would achieve that. Perhaps 5000?? It is down about 2000 points since the first time this formation was presented, at a time when the market was pretty gang-ho on Japan.

The Japanese economy has just been downgraded, and the central bank keeps intervening to keep the Yen down with very little result. The population has stopped growing and is now shrinking at an alarming rate. Government debt is the highest anywhere in the world at about 220% of GDP, which supposedly does not matter as they own it to themselves. Who knows, anything would seem possible.

IVN, Ivanhoe

Hamilton

There are 10 previous blogs on this company. Last time in Jan.2011 the expectation was that the stock could drop quite a bit to around $13 from the $30 level where it had peaked. Here is that chart;

ivn 2011 1

$13 was the most extreme as it was entirely possible that the drop would stop at the trend-line at $17.50 at that time if the drop was steep. It was not but it did get to that level. Today this is what we have;

ivn aug 2011 ivn aug 2011 s

So it did not  as deep as expected but it did trace out a very, very, nice “expanding diagonal triangle” wave C with the A and B in front of it. This is a highly reliable formation that calls for a sharp move back up to at least the origin of $30. A drop below $16 or so would negate this entire scenario.

Just the other day this company made the claim that it could mine its copper at a negative cost, that is the by-products (gold etc.) fetched enough to pay for the operation. This stock is out of phase with the rest of the space and it is huge.