Month: August 2011

CM. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Hamilton

cm aug 7 2011

If there is any bank in Canada that has made a public display of incompetence, is particularly prone to nepotism and is totally a-moral if not immoral, it is the Bank of Commerce. All over Canada we still have their offices like little fortresses in local communities, and of course, HQ in downtown Toronto was , for decades, the tallest building in the British Empire.  They have not been able to shed this mindset and it has cost them big time.

To get to the point, this chart “predicts” in EW terms that the stock may well drop to the 4th wave of previous degree, no different than your daughter getting married at age 27, not that I know here , but that is what 95% of them just happen to do. That is at about $22 As one truly silly investment advisor on BNN said today, “It is not timing the market, but time in the market that counts” .Clearly this guy has never put a foot on a trading floor of any financial institution, preferring to dream on in some sort of moronic isolation. Another $5 and you will have made NOTHING on this stock over a 14 year period, except the dividend! See previous blogs.

CLC, CML Healthcare.

Hamilton

clc

cml may 2011  

In the May blog we suggested CLC might find a low at about $8. The structure was that of a diagonal or wedge. Each leg within the structure should consist of 3 legs. In the top chart , starting at the beginning of 2010 that is the case. The last leg itself should consist of 5 waves, it is. The only thing that could be missing is the 5th of the 5th. It is probable a buy now!On second thought this may still be too high. The chart is hard to get but this one is from the website;

clc aug 2011 2

The wedge idea may be incorrect. Instead it may be a double zig-zag a-b-c X a-b-c in which case $7,50 looks more appropriate. Also the wave 4 of previous degree is even lower than that, more like $7. The difference between the top chart and this one is that it is semi-log scale, which puts the equality point somewhat lower. Furthermore, the wedge up may comprise the entire wave up putting wave 4 at $5, not $7.

FCX, Freeport MCMoRan

Hamilton

Think copper and a little gold, in Indonesia. A one pony show, the green berg ;fcx aug 2011

I was speaking to an old friend about EW, and he said to me that he had trouble “seeing” the waves. I can see that. There are so many different ways of looking at things and so many different excuses that it can indeed be a very frustrating exercise , particularly the the time element can be notoriously off. It is more an art than a science, but with FCX we have a very clear chart. The B-wave that we have seen in dozens of stocks is very prominent with FCX. It is also now conclusive as, due to the overlap, it is virtually impossible that this will still develop into something else. At a minimum this will drop to $30, but I would expect a lot further.

MFC, Manulife update.

Hamilton

It should be pretty clear that I am not very fond of this stock, the canary in the coal mine. Again it is at an interesting point;

MFC aug 7 2011

My pencil is not sharp enough, but should the stock drop through $12.70, it will drop straight down and so will the market (the causality if, of course, in the other direction). If $12.70 holds the stock may climb, perhaps to about $16, then it could drop by about $11/$12.