Month: August 2011

CSCO, Cisco

Hamilton

csco feb9 CSCO

Above some old charts on CISCO, one is now two or more years old, and yes we did go down and no we did not go up, but today it still is not clear if the old $8 low was it;

csco aug 2011 Seems like a long time, but EW is not particularly good at timing. What is clear is that we made a corrective A-B-C from the lows of $8 .Subsequent to that we seem to be in another A-B-C down, that is incomplete! None of this, unfortunately, is bullish, but it could become that after a revisit of $8; even then it is not bullish long-term.

MFC , Manulife update

Hamilton

mfc aug 10

As explained before, Manulife is one of the best barometers for the market as a whole. They bought their own sales talk and believed the rather unscientific statistical nonsense that there had never been a 10 year period during which the market went down. This was one of those six sigma events that could only happen once every 10,000,000 years. As luck would have it took only two or three years for the proverbial s…. to hit the fan.

Lately the Fed’s policy of keeping rates low for another two years is causing a “perfect storm” for the insurance companies. For MFC this may just be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The break shown above, makes a triangle formation not entirely impossible but very unlikely. Probable the stock will simple proceed down without a bounce. The old low around $9 looks like it can now be broken. A possible target would be $5, but something will happen before we get there, but that something probable will not help existing shareholders..

EEM , XEM Emerging markets

Hamilton

From previous blogs (Jan 22, 2011) we had this set of charts. The EEM is an ETF in US$ and the XOM is in Canadian dollars;

eem 2011 xem 2011

 

Today they look like this:

eem aug 2011 xem aug 2011

The EEM topped 3/4 months later than expected but added only 2 or 3 dollars but we are down 24%. The XEM did not go higher but did sort of triple top, it is down slightly less but seems to be doing it more rapidly. If history repeats itself emerging markets could decimate your portfolio, not because they are inferior but because they are less liquid.