CAT and HON, the importance of earnings, really?

cat july 2011 hon july 2011

Both charts superficially look alike. Both have very distinct B-waves , I think. Caterpillar, the one on the left, far exceeded its old highs primarily as a result of being the beneficiary of a lot of digging going on in mining and construction. Honeywell, on the right, did not do quite as well but did manage to, more or less, equal the old high (double-topping), and, hitting the underside of the previous channel.

Today both reported earnings, CAT was better by 44% and HON by 40%, and quite obviously both stocks traded down, CAT by as much as $7. It is not that CAT did not meet or exceed expectations, they almost all do. It is just that the CEO said a few things about China and the US administration that the market misunderstood or simple did not like. Earnings over the long haul are obviously important but in an environment where even large corporations go from shutting down to overtime in very short periods and where costs of capital are artificially reduced to zero and where productivity goes through the roof due to previous firings only to crash again due to exhaustion, it does not make a lot of sense to pay attention to. If these are B-waves, both stocks will go down regardless of earnings.

PD , Precission Drilling and TDG, Trinidad Drilling Ltd.

Last time in April a target of $18 was indicated, here are the then and now charts;

pd march 2011 PD july 2011

Since the last chart we spent a lot of time doing nothing much, perhaps a megaphone wave 4 of c, and then we shoot up on good earnings (not as bad as they were) and the world is rosy again. We still need a minor wave 4 of 5 and then 5 of 5 to finish this A-B-C structure. The stock is trading at a meaningless P/E of 66 but I am not sure when that was measured.

To add a little confidence to this A-B-C outlook and it’s implications , I have added TDG, Trinidad Drilling as a comparison;

tdg

This chart is arithmetic whereas the ones are semi-log. Sometimes things just present themselves better one way or the other. In any event the A-B-C is as plain as daylight even if it could be argued exactly where one ends and the other starts. This one also still seems to require a small 4 and 5 of 5 of C to be complete. Both are , of course , a sell either now or a little higher.

RDS.a, Royal Dutch Shell

Again a B-wave, here are then and now charts;

 

rds.a march 2011

This was from April 26th (see previous blogs). Among other things it told you oil was going to go down, not up which was then the “consensus”. Here is what we have done since;

rds.a july 2011

The stock went two dollars higher at the time to just under $78, then promptly dropped to $70, a little over 10%. If the original analysis was correct, and I still suspect it is, the stock should fall a lot further. It is presently retracing the first leg down but does not have that far to go before wave 3 (or, at best C) starts. At the very least we should get to $59, but if my 9altered) count is correct  $47 is very plausible.

LUN, Lundin Mining

This is another B-wave, and it had two takeover bids, here are the charts then and now;

LUN may 2011  lun july 2011

The stock dropped right on cue from a peak of $9 to a low of $6.25, or about 30%. It has done a nice 5 waves and is in the process of retracing that which possible could take it back to about $8 (maybe) . Then wave 3 or c will start and take the stock down quite a bit further.