Month: July 2011

KGI, Kirkland Lake Gold, update

Hamilton

Here is the May 17th chart as a refresher;

kgi s

The target was tentatively and conservatively set at $18 (triangle mouth measurement and trend-line). This target does not take into account any rise due to the lapse of time. Here is where we are now;

kgi jul 2011

We got to $16.45 so there is more to go. Often, but not always, the stock peaks right above the apex of the triangle, that would allow for more time. Also the trend-line ( one point is rather precarious!) is at around $19. The triangle’s mouth measurement would put the top at about $18.50.  Your choice!

kgi b

Get out with a 30% gain when the target is reached. The stock should drop back to the base of the triangle, and depending which scenario holds (blue or red, and possible – not shown- a large wedge wave 5, but there is no overlap.) it could be game over for quite a while.

CDH , Corridor Resources.

Hamilton

Some fellow on BNN suggested that one single operation , out of a number, of this company should be worth about $10 on its own. Normally such talk is just that, but looking at the chart the stock does look pretty promising all though it is not clear what brought it down so dramatically, nor is it clear (to the market) what is going to resurrect it. Here are the charts;

cdh b cdh s

Ignoring whatever fundamental hyperbole there might be, from a chart perspective this stock can easily climb back to , at the very least, the $6 level. Potentially a lot further. Notice that the stock’s gyrations are hardly correlated to the price of crude as it dropped from $8 to $3 while crude went from $115 to $87 or so.

CRR.un , Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust.

Hamilton

crr.un 1 crr.un2

Crombie  is a REIT and has done very well. That is why it should be sold. I have no specific count for this stock and I admire the owners that are able to live in the present and hold on to this stuff way beyond it’s past due date. With all the QE2 and trillions here and there the REITs have been major beneficiaries of zero-interest rates. Even so this one has only managed to add a dollar and change over an entire year. It is also just a dollar away from double topping. From an income point of view living in the present makes a lot of sense the only problem is that the future is just around the corner.

S , Sherritt

Hamilton

S july 2011 l S jul 2011 s

Sherritt has worked out well a few times.(see also Feb. 23 blog) There is a distinct possibility that the stock is tracing out a “megaphone” (an expanding horizontal triangle). There are a few question-marks attached to this count but from a risk/reward perspective it is a rather compelling possibility worth pursuing . First, the stock yields about 2.5% and trades at a P/E of about 8. It has mining operations in Cuba which from an American perspective makes you persona non grata as you are trading with the enemy, but Cuba may soon have a management change and all of this will be forgotten. Secondly these megaphones can only occur in waves 4 or B. In both cases the next big move is up and up fast, most often close to where the upper trend-line runs ($11) The game here is to buy as close to $5.60 as possible (bottom trend-line and about 62% retracement). In the worst case the stock could continue to drop but then it would probable not go further than $4.5 (previous 4th wave) after which it would return to $7 anyway.

I have tried to contact some of you by e-mail. Your mail box is full!