Month: June 2011

YLO Yellow Pages.

Hamilton

Last time I looked at this stock, back in ‘09 it was still an income fund earning about 15%. The target was $7.50, it got to $7. I have not really looked at it seriously since. Here it is;

ylo june 2011

Clearly this one is in trouble. Frankly you should have been stopped out at about $5 which represents the bottom of the consolidation range. We may get a rebound of a dollar or a little more which would present a good exit point if you still own it. The younger generation simple does not use the Yellow Pages anymore and even if this is supposedly Canada’s largest internet company, it simple is not changing the business model fast enough.

RIM update

Hamilton

rim june 2011 rim june 2011 s15

RIM as per my last blog on June 2 ,2011, could go as low as $25. Now that we are getting a little closer it is possible to refine the target to something in the order of $31 or so. As popular as this stock once was, so unpopular it is now. Every analyst is crawling over the next guy to come up with even lower targets. Each leg in this structure should have an intermission somewhere in the middle. That has happened perhaps,but it is hardly discernable with the naked eye which explains why it seems to have gone straight down.

The good news is, that if we hit the target (and we can turn anytime now at these levels!!) this stock should go straight up.  $45 is the very minimum, $70 is very reasonable and, if this is the pattern I think it is $90. (see June 2 blog).

TSE bull or bear?

Hamilton

tsx june 2011  TSX june 15 b 2011

Looking at the TSE it looks to me that we have done a B with from the lows of March 2009. The trend-lines etc.etc. all seem to support that notion very well. However it still could be possible that we need to go one higher. Personally my (subjective) take on the matter is that we go down NOW, but EW does not definitively support that as, as al ways, there is a lot of ambiguity. Looking at the chart on the right it is clear that the B wave COULD be incomplete. Both patterns in the circles could be A-B-Cs with the C being a diagonal as shown below on the left;

 TSX June 15 2011 tsx 15 june 2011 bear

If this one applies we should go one higher even if the ultimate outlook does not change. If the one on the right, starting with a series of 1-2s , applies we are on the verge of dropping into a 3d wave and things will accelerate rapidly. Take your pick but I would go for the bear case when taking into account all other considerations, such as fundamentals, valuations, sentiment etc.etc.

Note that diagonals do not contain 5 wave legs (unless it is a type 2 pattern which arguable does not exist either) and consequently the count on the left is rather dubious. Also if we do go one higher both patterns within the circles would be similar and consequently there would be no alternation.