Month: March 2011

S, Sprint Nextel

Hamilton

s march 2011

Sprint Nextel started its move, apparently the two parts want to split or something like that. At $5+ we got to a level above the d-wave. That combined with the proximity to the apex of the triangle (relatively speaking), makes it virtually certain that the triangle is done and now we should move up in C. Just as a reference, (this does not have to be so!) the high point is usually reached perpendicularly above the apex, and at a distance equal to the “mouth” of the triangle. In this case that would be about $8 in two to three months. At the very least, for this to be a A-B-C correction the C wave should reach the high point of A, about $6. Keep an eye on it.

TAP, Molson Coors.

Hamilton

While the Feds are replenishing the punch bowls all though it is 5 a.m and all the citizens are already pretty well spaced out, our  North-American combo of Molson Coors is hitting a little rough patch, or so the charts suggest;

TAP2 2011 TAP2011

There are a number of interesting aspects to this stock. Looking at the big-chart, there is quite obviously a triangle of sorts in the (always) 4th wave position of the 30 year bull run. These triangles tend to be retraced entirely after the peak (5) is in, most often to the lowest point in this case about $21, or perhaps even one notch lower. That this has NOT happened yet, tells us that it is very likely to happen soon.

Furthermore, looking at the B wave in the more detailed chart on the right, the A-B-C structure is equally clear, with C barely getting higher than A but still maintaining that symmetry of C=A. The drop from there is quite sharp , virtually excluding the possibility of the stock regaining its composure. A wee little bounce to $46 is certainly possible from here , but otherwise the stock is a sell.

MFC, The Canary in the mine?

Hamilton

mfc 2011 l mfc2011

On the left the old chart, indicating what should happen if MFC was an indicator for a bull market. We did get the bull market but MFC itself did not participate as much as it should have. By now it should have been trading at or near the old high of $26 so it is about $8 short of that. In the mean time SLF and POW are much closer to those levels. Seems to me that ……

canary

The stock may be tracing out a small triangle that would , perhaps , give it a bounce to $20+ but I would abandon the stock now or , at the very least use a very tight stop. The real question now is should this approach be applied to the entire market as a whole. Buy some HXD just to play it safe.

RDS.a , Royal Dutch Shell , update.

Hamilton

rds2011 rds20112

Just a quick update on Royal Dutch. Nothing has changed except that the A-B-C retracement probable completed a few weeks or so ago. The sheer geometric precision is a little marvel in itself but the possible implications are even more intriguing as they run completely contrary to the present wisdom in the street that seems to have it that oil will go up.

For whatever reasons, this stock seems destined for $34 or lower!