These people make medical equipment. Topping now or at $75
Month: February 2011
CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
What bear market? This one is like Netflix, but trading at a modest p/e of 50X. Are we there yet ? Probable not yet. Bull moves, impuls waves or whatever one wishes to call them normally follow the standard 5-wave pattern. But there are all sorts of 1-2, 1-2 type of situations, extensions and so on that throw the proverbial monkey-wrench into the count. The way to solve this is by simple counting the speed bumps, they have to add up to 5, 9,13 etc. We have done (or are still doing) 8. So one more, perhaps 290, but hardly worth waiting for.
CCO, Cameco
A picture is worth a thousand words! Do we know anymore than the next guy where this is going? Of course not. But we can see the following;
1. The stock has retraced about 62% of the drop in 2009. This does not imply that it cannot go higher, but it does tell you that you could be at a critical point of sorts.
2. The drop in 2008/9 is a distinct a-b-c. Typically these are retraced to the level of the b-wave, in this case just around $43 where you are now.
3. Retracements, either up or down often take the form of a-b-c and very often the relationship between the c and a wave is one of equality, i.e. c=a where we are now.
4. Applying the buy low , sell high rule, it is pretty clear that we are more in the high than low range.
5. We could be in a 5th wave up, on our way to $70 or higher. This is certainly not impossible but nevertheless unlikely. In this scenario the drop from 1996 to 2000 would be a wave 2 and the drop in 2008/9 a wave 4. The problem with that is that there is no alternation, not impossible but still a very low probability scenario.
This is a stock that should be exited, plain and simple. See previous blogs
India (IFN) and China (CHN).
Here are India represented by IFN and China by CHN. Not the best funds but they will do. Both went into bubbles 5 to 70 and 5 to 53. Both crashed but we know from experience that bubbles nearly always, or perhaps even always, correct to levels below their respective starting points, which has not happened yet and therefore should happen. Both counter-trends since the recent lows are very clear B-waves. One may not be finished yet but that is simple a matter of timing. So if these two appear so shaky what would happen to the rest?