Month: January 2011

SLE

Hamilton

 

sle aug 2010 2

sle aug 2010

These charts are from August 2010. Below is today’s chart.

sle jan 2011

The stock did not drop quite as far is it could have, so perhaps some people missed buying it. Those that did, should consider selling soon for a nice profit. The run up from the lows can be counted in a number of different ways but a simple 5-wave is distinctly possible which would imply a drop back to, say $13. For the more patient investor it may be worth waiting for a serious take-over bid, which , should it arrive, would preclude any further drop.

PFE

Hamilton

pfe 2011 jan

As you get older you love to hate  big pharma, certainly when you start with a father as head of the largest Dutch company, Duphar, telling you every day how the business stinks. These guys are the marketers of the world. It is no coincidence that RBC’s top broker, before he got fired,or should I say shown the door, was from the Montreal pharma industry. But enough is enough, we keep thinking about buying low and selling high and Pfizer fits the bill! More and more people will need lipitor, they will just change the color and get another 25–year  patent protection. Perhaps, just perhaps, 80% down was enough. Not yet convinced but willing to put it on the table. Is that a break-out???

WY, Weyerhaeuser. By special request.

Hamilton

Anytime you have 3 vowels in a row you know there is trouble ahead. They could be Russian even though they use a different alphabet , or Irish or even Dutch and drunk. More over if you are in the 2by4 and paper business there must be more trouble. “That having been said” as the saying goes, never mind the incorrectness of the  grammar and the pretty boring cliche’ the stock has had an amazing uptrend, before almost meeting its maker. Here is the chart.

wy 2011 2

So where do we go from here? Of course I have absolutely no idea, but that I have in common with every other jackass that pretends he/she knows. All I have is common sense and EW,using that I would exit any long position at around $23, a 4th wave and an area where the rise from the low, perhaps an a-b-c reaches the point where c= a, a very common event. Also we are reaching a 50% retracement. Using a more detailed chart we would come to the same conclusion.

wy jan 2011

This thing scares the hell out of me.. Again the top is at around $23 if you can bear to ride it all the way. Is it 5 up or an A-B- C? I have no idea, that is the beauty of EW. Just as religion it keeps you guessing, there are no certainties, just probabilities, which is why the most devout atheist is sometimes seen praying. We will go back to the tried and true approach to investing, that is buy low – sell high and, when in doubt ,  get out. Both suggest we should exit the scene very soon.

AVL, Avalon rare metals Inc.

Hamilton

AVl jan 2011

From 0 to 8 in two years, looks pretty bullish. Except when you do your homework and look at it over a slightly longer timeframe;

avl jan 2011 2

From 45 to 8 is not that bullish, in fact it is downright bearish, but maybe, just maybe the time has come for a real bull market. Who knows but at least this one has a chart to warn you. MCP, Molycorp Inc, another one of these rare earth wonders, does not! They live by sheer chance depending on whatever whims the Chinees have at any given moment. Things to stay away from IMO.