On Apr. 9, 2009 the prediction was that this stock would go up (see blog of that date), as per below;
Today we are here;
Tomorrow, who knows, so “When in doubt get out” .
Granted that under the 30% rule you might already be out, but nevertheless the target was always about $15
Here is one of my better calls, also one of the more unbelievable ones. First observed in Oct. 08 this is a very clear expanding diagonal. Invariable they return to their starting point, in this case $9.60 or so. That, by the way, is a minimum as I pointed out in my May 9 blog. Over last years year-end I fell asleep on this one only to notice that it had traded at about $1 at the low! Ultimately this one can go to $15/$17 where the 4th of precious degree resides. We bought it at about $3.30 and, as always, sold too early.
Back in business. Here is the TSE and the DAX with the Shanghai index frown in for good measure. All have done, more or less, the same thing, that is drop 50% or more initially and then regain 50 to 62% the other way on the retracement. Notice also that in the last 3 or 4 months none have added much value, at least not compared to the initial spurt: the momentum is obviously dying. This , ultimate target for the TSE is in this blog going back to the beginning of the year, so even though I may have suggested getting out or even going short earlier it does not follow that the analysis is wrong; it only means that the market- for whatever reason , is pushing the envelope to the extreme.
A slightly higher level remains a possibility, both in the TSE , and even more so, in the DAX, but hoping for that may just not be worth it.
