The original idea that this may develop as a b-wave, as shown yesterday, may not be correct. B-waves are 3-waves not 5-waves and unless I am blind this is a 5-wave move. Ergo the possibility has to be entertained that this is wave one of the next leg (a small 3d wave.) If correct there is just a little more upside on Monday as we now have seen so often and then a virtual crash for the next leg. This is very tricky but very possible!
I have been wrong on this one on thinking that it would triple top and go no further. Well it did and it showed its cards clearly. This is a short soon!
Bothe the multi year trend line and the triangle measure suggest a top around $51/52. However this is a pretty sure thing so you may want to make your move a little earlier or play it with put options. This pattern is very clear and very reliable!
All morning the whole world seems to be waiting for the unemployment number, not the Canadian but the US one. This one is supplied by the Dept. of Labor and is notorious for the enormous revisions and non factual basis. This time the big number went down to 9.7%, but the absolute number over the last 2 years went up from 7.2 mln to 8.4 mln, an additional 1.2 mln, but that was expected so it did nothing. A loss of 75,000 in the housing sector did surprise but could be explained by snow in Florida. The initial reaction of the market by way of the futures was positive even though Paris made new lows before regaining its composure.
We would prefer to look at these things from a macro economic perspective, or , if you wish , from 30000 feet. Better yet we looked at Shadow Government Stats, a website that does things the way they were done in the 80-ties. Here is the chart again.
Notice that even by the more correct “official” U-3 and U-6 stats we are already above 17%
Toyota may be a buy here. Arguable it has done 5 down, has reached the bottom of the wedge at $74 and then some and both the RSI and MACD are at pretty low levels. This stock has been down 10x for the last 11 days. I own a Corolla and a Subaru, the Corolla has the floor mats tied down real well whereas the Subaru (2x as expensive) has the mats floating all over the place. Abstracting from the brake pedal proper, the Corolla is much safer, at least with respect to anything having to do with the gas peddle. Curiously no mention has been made at all of the Audi. It would seem to me that the problem is grotesquely overstated. Also the company upped its guidance re its future profitability. Looks like a buy to me with tight stops $70/69 for a target of $80 or so.