Year: 2010

FXI and FXP, XinhuaChina 25 ETF, and the Ultrashort, both iShares.

Hamilton

Earlier I suggested the Shanghai index (DJSH index ) might be ready for a substantial drop. So far it did drop but not that much. Here is the FXI which is 46% banks which may presently be more to the point as , after all it is the banks that are lending as if there is no tomorrow, even if they are doing it on command. The FXP is the equivalent short, ultra short (3x) which may be a good hedge for any commodity position. here are the charts.

 FXI Feb 2010fxp feb 2010

The FXP looks a little like the heart beat of a patient that did not make it, but then it comes from $200 not that long ago , so evidently there is some potential here.

BTE.UN, Baytex Energy Trust, Feb 2010

Hamilton

Energy companies come in all sizes and shapes. Some are vertically integrated and large like Shell and Exxon, some are small and very specialized in their particular field. Others are mostly in the business of finding gas and again others in the business of finding oil ( the two go hand in hand only to a certain degree). Some are “service” companies such as Schlumberger or Precision Drilling and again others are more or less utilities delivering the stuff to the consumer, like Enbridge. Consequently they all behave differently but in the main all have lost about 5-10% of their value since oil came of the $86 or so level a few weeks ago – EXCEPT this one, Baytex (and Enbridge). Not sure why that is exactly but it is a sell here or on the next dollar up, as it will double top like IVN above. This is not a certainty but it does happen too often to ignore and I have yet to meet the guy that lost money taking profits.

BTE.UN feb 2010

IVN, Ivanhoe, Feb 2010

Hamilton

The stock dropped some $5 right on schedule. Since then it has rebounded and should soon go for the second leg down as a minimum. About $11 would be an ideal initial target. This may come about partly as a result of what is going on with copper itself. Here is the chart.

ivn feb 2010

MCD update see Jan blog.

Hamilton

As anticipated the stock needed just one more slight push up to about $66, which it did on schedule. It is now a short for a minimum target of $48. If using options chose a relatively long one as this process could take between a year and a year and a half.

MCD feb 2010