First recommended in April of last year at about $6. If you have not sold yet do so now. This one has done exactly what one would have expected. It can , of course, go higher but that is nowhere as certain as what it has done the last year.
Year: 2010
TS.B , Torstar, feb 2010
Not sure what this one will do but I was asked the question. Here is my take, these people own the Toronto Star, the paper with by far the highest circulation in Toronto and surrounding area, all others are too capitalist to do home delivery outside the city proper. They also own assets like Harlequin, a lightly sexy romance series aimed at house wives who are still deploring the extinction of the mail man. The main competitor, apart from the Globe and Mail, in the form of the Financial Post , is losing its touch, or at least its readership, and is barely surviving with one leg in the grave. So there is hope for Torstar even if it is not exactly our cup of tee. Here is the chart.
TSO, Tesoro, Feb 2010
Tesoro, Spanish for treasure, is one of those oil companies you might want to look at. It is mostly in the business of refining, much like a chemical plant. I do not claim to understand any part of the business but apparently it used to be that if you took in heavy oil (At a lower price!) and were able to crack it, you would , in a manner of speaking, pocket the difference. Apparently those days are over as too many off-shore competitors can do the same. This has put a crimp on their earnings lately. But, they are down and refining in Texas is not about to end, so perhaps there is upside. Here is the picture.
From 90 to 5 is a pretty good bear market by any measure, but this one has crawled along the bottom suggesting that it may find its composure. Wait for a 60% retracement of the first up leg from say 5 to 18, which is at about 10.50. Buy with a stop at say 8 and wait for $20.
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LQD , Investment grade corporate bond ETF, Feb 2010.
Bonds are assumed to be the safe part of the portfolio, however we tend to forget that, just using a few examples, on the morning of Oct 19 ,1987, Government bonds in the US moved 22 full points in an hour or two, enough to wipe out good number of participants. It did almost immediately retrace half of that. We also tend to forget that both Enron in the US and Confederation Life here in Canada were AAA corporate entities the very morning they failed.
Bond trading has two main components, one is duration risk and the other credit risk. It may seem tough to guess where interest rates are going but it is a lot easier than guessing where an individual credit might go, which is perhaps why the individual bond trader tends to stay with the Government bonds. It is on the retail side that arguments are made why corporate bonds are a good buy. Here is the chart;
Notice that both RSI and MACD (not shown) are already negative and have been for sometime. Notice also that the lows occurred at the time of the Lehman problems back in October and did not coincide with the stock market lows in March of last year. This rally is now approaching 1 and 1/2 year. From an EW perspective the entire rally could be an a-b-c irregular correction (not shown), or a last 5 waves up to complete a 32 years bond rally to zero. In the latter case a small triangle could be forming allowing for one more push to about 107 (see the pink pattern). I doubt it. In terms of buying low and selling high, this definitely does not fit the bill.